Global air cargo traffic, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), rose by 8.5% in June 2026 compared with the same month in 2025. This was reported by IATA, which titled its monthly report "the Middle East rejoins the global cargo expansion", underlining how the return to growth of the region’s carriers, despite continuing geopolitical uncertainty, was one of the factors behind the acceleration. In international traffic, the increase was stronger, at 9.6%. Available capacity, expressed in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), rose more moderately: by 4.4% globally and by 4.9% in the international segment. As a result, the load factor stood at 46.9%, up 1.7 percentage points compared with June 2025, with demand outpacing supply in all regions except Latin America and the Caribbean.
Growth was concentrated in two regions rather than evenly distributed. North America set the fastest pace, up 13.1%, adding more than 700 million CTK and alone generating almost 38% of the sector’s total increase. Asia Pacific, which accounts for 35.8% of global traffic, advanced by 7.9%, contributing 670 million CTK and 34% of the increase. Together, the two regions generated almost three quarters of the additional traffic. Europe lagged behind, with growth of 6.9%, while Latin America and the Caribbean closed the overall market at 3.5%, the weakest performance among the macro-regions.
In international traffic alone, where North America accelerated by 4.3 points compared with May to 17.1% year on year, the real change of pace came from the Middle East. Carriers in the region gained 14.5 percentage points compared with May, rising to 5.6% year on year, a gain that IATA said reflects the gradual restoration of transit traffic through regional hubs. Asia Pacific maintained a solid international pace, at 9.6%, Europe rose to 7.2%, Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.6%, while Africa gained 4.7% but slowed by 7.4 points compared with May.
Asia-linked corridors remain the main strength. The Asia-North America route, the largest by traffic, rose by 14.7%, marking a fifth consecutive month of growth, driven by urgent demand for semiconductors and artificial intelligence components. The same factor supported intra-Asia trade, which grew by 7.2%, while the Europe-Asia route gained 7.1%, extending its growth streak to forty consecutive months. Transatlantic traffic remained broadly flat year on year, but accelerated by 1.8 points compared with May, ending three consecutive months of contraction, although it has not yet returned to positive territory. The opposite trend was seen on routes passing through the Gulf: the Europe-Middle East route fell by 41.1%, the sharpest contraction among the main routes, worsening by a further 20.2 points compared with May, while the Middle East-Asia route remained down by 4.1%, with the pace of contraction easing by 11.8 points. The corridor picture therefore confirms that the recovery of Middle Eastern carriers has not yet translated into a uniform rebound across all links connected to the region’s hubs.
On the capacity front, Africa represented the clearest exception: despite demand increasing by 4.7%, the region’s carriers reduced supply by 7.1%, lifting the regional load factor to 48.1%, the strongest increase among the regions, up 5.4 points, but achieved through capacity reductions rather than the absorption of new traffic. Asia Pacific recorded the highest utilisation rate, at 51.8%, followed by Europe at 50.5% and the Middle East at 46.5%, where transit traffic has gradually returned towards regional hubs. North America stood at 40.7%. The only exception to the general trend was Latin America and the Caribbean, where the load factor fell by 2.1 points to 33.9%, with capacity increasing by 9.8% against demand growth of just 3.5%.
On costs, jet fuel fell by 28.5 dollars per barrel month on month, to an average of 129.5 dollars, thanks to improved oil flows through the Persian Gulf. Average Brent crude fell by around 20% compared with May, to 85.5 dollars per barrel, amid discussions over a sixty-day ceasefire, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returned to almost half of its pre-conflict level. Year on year, however, prices remain much higher: jet fuel is up 45.8%, Brent is up 19.6%, and the refining margin, or crack spread, is 155.6% wider, with refineries continuing to prioritise jet fuel production over diesel.
Air cargo yields, denominated in dollars and including surcharges, fell by 1.2% compared with May, the first monthly decline after two consecutive increases and the weakest sequential result in the past five months. Year on year, however, they remain 34.0% higher, the fourth consecutive month of double-digit increases. For IATA, the monthly decline points to an easing from the recent peak, not a return to normal pricing conditions.
Growth in cargo demand outpaced growth in global goods trade. The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell by 0.5 points to 53.0, while remaining in expansion territory, while the new export orders sub-index fell by a further 0.1 point to 49.4, below the 50-point threshold for the fourth consecutive month. Global industrial production, as measured by the World Bank, was unchanged in May but remained 3.4% above its level a year earlier. For IATA, these indicators together point to manufacturing activity holding up against weaker goods trade, with air cargo demand concentrated in shipments for which speed, reliability or the value of the goods justify premium transport.
A.M.B.
