The tariff truce announced on 12 May 2025 between the United States and China marks a turning point in the trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. The agreement, which includes a mutual reduction in tariffs for a ninety-day period, is expected to have an immediate and significant impact on maritime container transport, with effects that could extend well beyond the scheduled end date of 10 August. Under the terms of the deal, the United States will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while Beijing will lower its own from 125% to 10%. Markets reacted swiftly: within hours, the share prices of major shipping companies rose, with some posting double-digit gains.
The transpacific route, heavily penalised in recent months by tariff pressures, is now poised for a sharp reversal, according to analysts. Shipping lines are rapidly reallocating capacity and reinstating suspended services. Hapag-Lloyd has already reported a surge in bookings ahead of the peak season, while MSC, Cosco and Maersk are revising their plans to resume regular China-US connections. “You can cancel a vessel with about ten days’ notice and reactivate it in even less time,” said Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk, highlighting the industry's agility.
At the same time, carriers have introduced peak season surcharges ranging from $1,000 to $2,000 per feu, pushing freight rates to the US West Coast beyond the $3,500 mark per unit. Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta noted that the combination of tariff reductions and the arrival of the high season could spark a fresh upward surge in rates.
The temporary window provided by the truce is also accelerating so-called front-loading, with US importers bringing forward orders to take advantage of lower tariffs. Lars Jensen, founder of Vespucci Maritime, explained that American importers “had adopted a wait-and-see strategy” and are now ready to act quickly to restock. This behaviour could bring forward the peak season, concentrating it unusually between May and July.
Pressure on the supply chain will be unavoidable. Container ships must be repositioned, and the availability of containers remains a critical variable. Mike Jacob, president of the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association, warned of potential bottlenecks: actual availability will depend on factors such as vessel positioning, warehouse space, and storage capacity in the face of soaring demand. The risk of congestion at US ports is real and could revive scenarios previously seen during the pandemic.
In the longer term, however, the truce does not eliminate uncertainty. Tariff levels, although reduced, remain high, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that the 30% rate could become a stable minimum benchmark in future. Moreover, market data show that despite a rebound in spot rates since April, average values remain below the levels seen at the start of the year, pointing to underlying fragility. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, observed that “a 30% tariff on imports from China will still be prohibitive for many companies with tight margins,” which could hinder a full recovery in demand over the medium term.
