The logistics real estate sector continues to show remarkable attractiveness in Italy and confirms itself in 2024 as one of the main investment targets. According to analysis conducted by Jll, a company operating in real estate consulting and investment management, this sector recorded approximately 1.7 billion euros in investments, equal to 17% of the total and ranking third after offices and retail.
According to the research, 2024 saw a prevalence of operations with a value below 25 million euros, which represented about 60% of the total. However, there was renewed interest in transactions exceeding one hundred million euros, with 30% of volumes concentrated in three major operations. Furthermore, several portfolios entered exclusive negotiations in 2024, with closure expected in the first months of 2025.
Core+ capital (properties in premium areas requiring minor interventions to increase profitability) and Value Add capital (properties requiring renovation or redevelopment) continue to dominate the market, supported by confidence in the solid dynamics of the occupier sector. However, signs of renewed interest in Core investments (properties in premium areas) are emerging, thanks to price adjustments over the last 24 months, which has brought prime net yields to 5.5%.
The rental market recorded an absorption of 2.2 million square metres, a figure lower than the previous year but still above the average of the last ten years. The main factors in this decline include longer negotiation times and a slowdown in e-commerce operator activity. The slowdown in the European market has also had an impact on the Italian market.
Nevertheless, 3PL logistics operators remain the main players in terms of absorption, covering about 50% of the total, followed by traditional retailers representing 30%. Over 30% of operations in 2024 involved Built-to-Own projects, particularly those exceeding 50,000 square metres, highlighting the difficulty of finding solutions in locations not considered premium but strategic for operators.
Jll's research shows that 76% of operations are concentrated in northern Italy, 19% in the centre and only 5% in the south. Rental rates remained stable on a quarterly basis but showed significant growth in 2024 compared to the previous year. In Milan and Rome, rents stand at 67 euros per square metre, in Veneto at 57 euros per square metre, in Bologna at 66 euros per square metre and in Turin at 50 euros per square metre. Last-mile assets maintain stable prime rents at around 110 euros per square metre in both Milan and Rome.
Despite uncertainties, development activity in 2024 remained sustained, with the completion of approximately two million square metres of projects, 70% of which were speculative. Elena Di Biase, Head of Logistics Capital Markets at Jll Italia, explains that the fourth quarter confirmed international capital's interest in large operations in the Italian logistics market. The first quarter of 2025 presents with a significant backlog, which will contribute to an increase in transacted volumes. Renato Loffredo, Head of Logistics Last Mile & Industrial Agency, adds that 2024 confirmed the resilience of the Italian logistics sector. Looking ahead to 2025, it will be crucial to monitor the impact of intense development activity, which could offer new opportunities to occupiers and influence market dynamics.
