Average global spot freight rates for air cargo rose by 41% year on year in May 2026, averaging US$3.40 per kg, while worldwide demand grew by 4% compared with the same month of the previous year. The figures come from the monthly analysis by Xeneta, the transport market analytics company, which depicts a sector under pressure but with the first signs of easing in long-term contracts after the peak recorded in April.
The dynamic load factor reached 61% in May, driven by demand that outpaced supply growth. Capacity, recovering after disruptions caused by conflicts in the Middle East, ended the month just 1% higher than a year earlier. The imbalance between demand and supply largely explains the high level of spot rates, which are nevertheless expected to fall as the summer season approaches in the northern hemisphere: traditionally a quieter period for freight, but one marked by plentiful belly capacity on passenger flights.
Trade lanes are showing different dynamics. Routes between Europe, South Asia, South-east Asia and the Middle East recorded double- and triple-digit increases compared with February levels, with peaks of up to 113% in the week ending 31 May. This reflected persistent tensions linked to missile activity around Hormuz and the ceasefire between the US and Iran. By contrast, the Europe-North America corridor is facing downward pressure on rates, thanks to the ample belly capacity provided by summer passenger flights.
The transpacific corridor remains the strongest, supported by shipments linked to artificial intelligence: semiconductors and data centre equipment continue to generate structural demand that is keeping rates high on this route. Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, notes that the maritime market is triggering an anticipatory shipping dynamic, known as frontloading, with shippers accelerating production and transfers to guard against higher energy costs and avoid seasonal peaks. This trend, which has already pushed up rates in ocean freight, could soon spill over into air cargo volumes and timing if current operating conditions persist.
The e-commerce front is clearly deteriorating. Low-value Chinese exports, a key driver of air cargo in recent years, recorded their fifth consecutive monthly decline in April 2026, contracting by 11% year on year. A breakdown by destination reveals a marked imbalance: shipments to the United States plunged by 33%, while exports to Europe and Asia Pacific held up better, falling by a more limited 6% and 1% respectively. Part of the overall decline is nevertheless being masked by a shift from individual parcels to consolidated loose air shipments, which dilutes the visible data but does not reduce the structural pressure on the segment.
The outlook for Asian e-commerce is becoming more complicated on the regulatory front. The European Union will remove the €150 de minimis exemption from 1 July, replacing it with a fixed duty of €3 per item, with additional handling charges expected in November. The measure directly affects the sales model of major fast e-commerce operators such as Shein, Temu and AliExpress. In the United States, the introduction of an additional duty of between 10% and 12.5% is under discussion for goods from 60 countries, including China, which are accused of failing to comply with bans on forced labour. Integrated operators fear that the technical requirements needed to implement these reforms cannot be put in place in time, creating a real risk of border blockages and incoming parcels being held.
Faced with this scenario, shippers are adopting a short-term defensive strategy: extending existing contracts and postponing long-term tenders while they wait for the market to return to more stable levels. Long-term rates, after reaching their peak in April, have already begun to ease, opening the possibility of some relief for shippers as early as June 2026.
Anna Maria Boidi
