Among the first analyses of the Israeli attack on Iran, which began during the night between 12 and 13 June 2025, is that of Norwegian research company Xeneta, which released an initial statement on the afternoon of 13 June outlining the consequences for maritime transport. The report highlights that in a context already strained by over a year of crisis in the Red Sea, the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran is fuelling fresh and serious concerns over the security and stability of global maritime supply chains. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, remarked that geopolitics is once again threatening the safety of international trade routes and stressed the urgent need for de-escalation between Israel and Iran to avoid systemic consequences.
The core issue, according to Xeneta, is the Strait of Hormuz. Should the conflict lead to its effective closure, the effects would be immediate and potentially devastating for container shipping. The strait serves as the primary gateway to the ports of the Persian Gulf, including Jebel Ali, a critical hub for connections with Asia and Europe. The company noted that in the event of a blockade, maritime services would have to be rerouted to the western coast of India, increasing pressure on ports such as Nhava Sheva and Mundra. This would likely result in significant port congestion, delivery delays and soaring costs. Shipping companies could also introduce security surcharges, further amplifying the economic impact on logistics operators and the manufacturing sector.
The current instability comes on top of an already compromised situation in the Red Sea, where continued attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have for months discouraged the passage of container ships. As a result, many traditional routes that would normally pass through the Suez Canal have been redirected around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to higher costs and longer transit times.
According to Xeneta data, spot rates from China to Northern Europe have risen by 62 percent since 1 December 2023, while those to the US East Coast have surged by 165 percent, a clear indication of ongoing tensions. The company warns that exporting and importing businesses are entering a new phase of uncertainty, marked by tighter margins, escalating costs and increasingly complex flow planning. Sand emphasises that the hope lies with diplomacy to defuse an escalation which, if left unchecked, could jeopardise the stability of global trade for months to come.
