The European road freight market entered 2026 with a clear split between contract and spot rates. In the first quarter - according to the European Road Freight Rates report by IRU, Upply and TransportIntelligence - the long-term contract index rose to 140.1 points, up 8.9 points year on year, while the spot index fell to 132.3 points, down 2.8 points from the previous quarter. Analysts say this reflects an unstable operating environment. Companies are tending to secure capacity and costs over longer time horizons, while the spot market is being affected by weak demand, post-Christmas seasonality and consumer spending held back by inflation.
The trend in rates comes against a backdrop of an 8% year-on-year decline in real road freight volumes between the main EU economies. The European household savings rate is reported at 14.4%, indicating a lower propensity to spend and therefore more limited pressure on freight flows. This confirms that transport prices are not being supported by broad-based growth in demand, but by the transfer of operational, energy and regulatory risks along the supply chain.
The first source of pressure comes from energy. The report links cost tensions to the Middle East scenario, with the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz said to have reduced global oil supply by 10% in March. In this context, Brent rose from $60 to $118 a barrel, an increase of 97%, while European diesel reached an average of €1.96 per litre, up 26%. The companies most exposed to this increase are those with contracts less closely indexed to fuel, weaker financial capacity and less efficient fleets. Higher energy costs are being compounded by tolls, with the report identifying Poland as one of the most significant cases, at +33%. The result is pressure on margins, making it harder to absorb rapid cost fluctuations without passing them on to customers.
Operational capacity also remains an open issue. The driver shortage is estimated at 12.1% in the EU, reducing system flexibility just as shippers seek greater delivery reliability. Fleet transition is not yet offsetting this rigidity: new truck registrations are down 6%, signalling cautious investment at a time of high costs and uneven demand.
One interesting and innovative element of the report is that a component of transport demand is coming from investment in data centres and infrastructure linked to artificial intelligence. According to analysts, projects attributable to AWS in Germany and Microsoft in Spain, valued respectively at €1.2 billion and €2.9 billion, are generating logistics flows for servers, cooling systems, IT components and prefabricated modules. This demand has different characteristics from ordinary industrial flows. Data centre equipment has a high unit value, requires scheduled transport, services with greater operational control and often specialist capacity. For hauliers active in these niches, pricing pressure may therefore be less tied to overall volumes and more to service quality, cargo security, punctuality and the availability of suitable vehicles.
The geography of the European market remains uneven. Spain is showing stronger momentum, with spot rates up 14.4 points year on year and GDP reported at +2.8%. The report links this trajectory to the lower energy intensity of the Spanish economy and the resilience of some exports, including pharmaceuticals. In this context, domestic transport demand appears stronger than in other markets. Italy, by contrast, shows a profile more exposed to the energy shock. The report indicates a dependence on gas equal to 38% of energy needs and notes a 3.5-point decline in domestic contract rates. Pressure on production costs may reduce manufacturing demand and compress internal flows, although some supply chains, such as furniture, are proving more resilient.
The comparison between Spain and Italy points to a broader trend: the European market is not reacting uniformly to the same shocks. Where domestic demand is more dynamic, energy exposure is more limited and exports retain momentum, rates can rise even in the short term. Where energy costs have a more direct impact on industrial production, transport demand may weaken even as hauliers face higher operating costs.
Operators’ expectations remain geared towards higher freight rates. The expectations index cited in the report rose to 16.9 points, while 64.4% of operators expect further rate increases in the short term. This indicates that cost inflation is seen as an ongoing factor, not as an isolated shift already absorbed by the market. For shippers, the picture reinforces the role of contracts with clear fuel-adjustment clauses and more stable capacity commitments, while for hauliers the management of variable costs, tolls and staff availability is becoming the central issue in rate negotiations.
Pietro Rossoni
