The launch on 20 April of the US system to refund tariffs declared illegitimate by the Supreme Court opens a new front in trade relations between Europe and the United States. Up to $166 billion is at stake, which US Customs is preparing to return to importers, with potentially significant effects on supply chains linking European manufacturing, freight forwarders, maritime carriers and intermodal operators. For those managing regular flows to the United States, from containers in Northern European ports to ro-ro and air connections, the issue is not only legal or fiscal: the redistribution of these costs could reshape transport contracts, warehousing strategies and market choices in the coming months.
The framework stems from a series of rulings that have struck at the core of the additional tariffs introduced by Donald Trump using the emergency powers of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The Court of International Trade has ordered US Customs and Border Protection to refund duties collected under these measures, including accrued interest, and to halt the collection of Ieepa tariffs not yet definitively assessed. At the same time, a federal Court of Appeals rejected the administration’s attempt to slow the process, making clear that the phase of delays is over and that the refund mechanism must be set in motion swiftly. Against this backdrop, Washington has announced one of the largest restitution programmes in the history of US foreign trade, expected to involve more than 330,000 importers and around 53 million shipments.
Refunds will be handled entirely through electronic channels and the Ace digital platform, via a dedicated module called Cape, which will consolidate each importer’s outstanding positions into a single operation. Since 6 February 2026, US Customs has no longer issued cheques: all payments are made by electronic transfer, reducing collection times and making financial planning more predictable for those managing customs flows. For companies and their logistics providers, this means requests cannot be handled informally: a detailed reconstruction of submitted declarations, outstanding entries and possible matches with individual physical shipments will be required, often involving international freight forwarders and multimodal transport operators.
The $166 billion figure comes from estimates released by official US sources and, according to data disclosed in recent weeks, refunds worth $127 billion had already been processed before the portal’s launch, indicating an administrative system moving at pace. Some analyses suggest slightly different ranges, between $130 billion and $175 billion, but the central point remains unchanged: this is a systemic rebalancing operation capable of affecting the profitability of entire supply chains and the future decisions of US companies. In this context, international transport is not a bystander: margin recoveries upstream may translate into greater room to renegotiate rates, redesign routes or invest in more resilient logistics solutions, such as alternative ports or higher value-added services.
For logistics operators, this dynamic has translated into irregular loads, concentrated traffic surges and, in some cases, a repositioning of the port hubs used to serve the North American market. Additional tariffs have increased pressure on the margins of producers and distributors, but have also generated new requirements: consolidating shipments to improve the ratio between goods value and duty, diversifying routes to avoid congested ports, and rethinking delivery times in light of greater customs complexity. The prospect of refunds calls many of these balances into question, as it reduces part of the extra cost that had pushed some US companies to look to alternative suppliers in countries less affected by tariffs, thereby reshaping the geography of global flows.
On the European side, trade associations and consultants are working to translate this scenario into operational guidance. Notes from Ice (Italian Trade Agency) and materials published by several specialised firms stress that the right to a refund formally belongs to the “importers of record”, often US entities or customs intermediaries, but also highlight that the economic benefit may be subject to agreements between importer and supplier.
However, regulatory complexity remains high and does not allow for easy automation. Refund procedures are subject to tight time windows and documentation requirements, and US authorities themselves have had to temporarily suspend the start of operations to resolve technical issues reported by Customs. Moreover, the legal landscape remains fluid: the government can still attempt appeals within set deadlines, with the risk of prolonging timelines for certain segments of operators or retroactively modifying some operational conditions. In this context of uncertainty, those managing transatlantic supply chains will need to incorporate the “tariff refund” variable into their risk models, combining route and capacity planning with continuous monitoring of customs procedures.
The refund programme comes at a time when tariffs remain a central instrument of US trade policy. Alongside the Ieepa measures set to be rolled back, other regimes remain in place, such as national security tariffs on steel and aluminium and the new universal 10% import tariff envisaged under the Trade Act of 1974, which continue to affect the cost structure of many supply chains. For the most exposed Italian industries, from automotive to mechanical engineering, from high-end agri-food to luxury, the era of tariffs is therefore not over but entering a more selective phase, where the recovery of overpaid duties must coexist with new forms of tariff pressure on other fronts. It is precisely in this transitional space that transport and logistics operators can strengthen their role as strategic providers, turning a complex customs dispute into tangible competitiveness levers for exporting clients.
Anna Maria Boidi
