Average spot rates for air cargo transport registered a rebound in the fourth week of January 2025, the one preceding the Chinese New Year. According to data released on 31 January by WorldAcd Market Data, freight rates increased by 4% between 20 and 26 January, reaching $2.52 per kilogram, marking an 11% rise compared to the same period in the previous year. As expected, the Asia-Pacific region drove this growth, with a weekly increase of 6%.
Tonnage transported from Asia-Pacific origins rose by 2% in the fourth week of the year, placing it 6% above the levels recorded in the same period of 2024, though still 8% below the 2024 peak. Average spot rates from the Asia-Pacific region climbed by 3% on a weekly basis, reaching $3.78 per kilogram, with an annual increase of 24%. However, annual comparisons are complicated by the fact that in 2025, the Lunar New Year fell on 29 January, nearly two weeks earlier than the 10 February celebration in 2024.
Following the traditional seasonal contraction at the end of the year, exports from the Asia-Pacific region to Europe recorded a strong rebound for the third consecutive week, increasing by 10% in the fourth week of 2025. Volumes approached the high levels of mid-December 2024 and stood 5% above the same period in 2024. Notably, shipments from China to Europe grew by 11% on a weekly basis, achieving an annual increase of 12%. Spot rates for Asia-Pacific–Europe ($4.32 per kilogram), China–Europe ($4.29), and Hong Kong–Europe ($5.15) routes remained stable. Although lower than December's peaks, these values remain aligned with the relatively high levels of mid-October 2024 and are 30% higher on an annual basis.
A similar recovery in spot rates was observed in the Asia-Pacific–US market, where rates reached $5.30 per kilogram for the Asia-Pacific region and $4.49 for China. This follows a period of decline after the December peaks when rates neared $7 per kilogram. On an annual basis, rates from the Asia-Pacific to the United States increased by 28%, while those from China to the US recorded a more modest growth of 5%. Demand rebounded after the year-end seasonal drop, rising by 11% compared to the fourth week of 2024.
Globally, overall air cargo transport volumes remained largely stable in the fourth week of the year (+1% weekly), following a 28% recovery in the second week and an 11% increase in the third, after the usual year-end seasonal decline. Current levels are 7% below the December weekly average but slightly higher than October and in line with those recorded a year ago. However, after a 2024 marked by an average annual growth of 11%, the sector's expansion could slow in 2025, as highlighted by WorldAcd during the World Cargo Summit in Ostend.
One market that saw significant growth in the fourth week of the year was Central and South America, where exports increased by 17% on a weekly basis. Much of this growth was driven by flower shipments, primarily destined for North America ahead of Valentine’s Day (14 February). WorldAcd’s analysis indicates that trends in 2025 closely resemble those observed in 2024. In the first four weeks of 2025, outbound volumes from Central and South America rose by 62%, with floral exports accounting for over half of this increase (+114% compared to the previous period), 92% of which were directed towards North America.
Despite a brief trade dispute between Colombia and the United States at the beginning of the year, Colombian floral exports maintained a central role in air commerce between Central and South America and North America. According to WorldAcd, 98% of floral exports from Central and South America to North America originate from Colombia (61%) and Ecuador (37%). Overall, flowers accounted for 77% of Colombia’s air exports and 63% of Ecuador’s in the first four weeks of 2025, underlining the crucial importance of access to the North American market for both countries.
