Drewry’s World Container Index, which tracks average spot container freight rates, fell to $4,434 per 40-foot container in the assessment published on 1 October 2026, with a weekly decline of 1% driven mainly by lower rates on the Asia-Europe trade. Since 17 September, when the composite index stood at $4,500, the cumulative decline has reached 1.5%, although rates remain significantly higher year on year, up 166%.
The sharpest fall this week was recorded on the Shanghai-Genoa route, where rates dropped 3% to $3,702 per feu, while Shanghai-Rotterdam declined 2% to $3,399. Compared with $4,016 and $3,626 respectively in mid-September, rates have fallen by 7.8% to Genoa and 6.3% to Rotterdam in two weeks. Rates on this trade lane have now fallen for twelve consecutive weeks, a trend Drewry attributes to weak demand. Even so, they remain more than twice as high as a year ago, up 105% for Genoa and 111% for Rotterdam. Capacity is also weighing on the market. Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight shows five cancelled sailings on the Asia-Europe trade next week, one fewer than the six recorded this week, implying a slight increase in scheduled capacity. This is being compounded by additional effective capacity resulting from more ships transiting the Suez Canal: in week 39, transits were 68% higher than in the same week of 2025. Uncertainty remains over Houthi activity, while disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues to affect maritime operations.
The transpacific market was more stable. Shanghai-New York rates rose 1% to $10,428 per feu, the highest level among the routes monitored, while Shanghai-Los Angeles was virtually unchanged at $7,835, just three dollars below the previous week. These are also the two routes showing the strongest year-on-year increases: 257% for Los Angeles and 226% for New York. Carriers continue to manage capacity through blank sailings, which are expected to fall from thirteen this week to ten next week. Drewry describes demand as still robust, although factory closures in China during Golden Week are expected to reduce outbound volumes, leading the analyst to forecast lower rates in its next assessment. Further ahead, the extension of the US-China trade truce could support a recovery in US-bound demand once the holiday period is over. Rates remain low on return routes to Asia. Rotterdam-Shanghai increased 2% to $613 per feu, while Los Angeles-Shanghai remained unchanged at $791.
On the Atlantic, New York-Rotterdam gained 1% to $1,118, while Rotterdam-New York was virtually unchanged at $3,116, up 73% year on year. In an effort to reverse the decline on Asia-Europe routes, shipping lines have announced increases in FAK rates for the second half of October, after the holidays. Drewry, which expects the short-term market to remain volatile because of the combined effects of demand, capacity and geopolitical developments, considers implementation of these increases uncertain and forecasts a further decline in freight rates on the trade next week.
M.G.
