A new global tariff war began on February 2025, initiated by US President Donald Trump. As he had announced before entering the White House for his second term, Trump has introduced 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico and increased existing tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%. Regarding the two American countries, the pretext is that they are not implementing effective policies against emigration and drug trafficking to the USA. This reason might be valid for Mexico, but it is clearly a pretext for Canada, from which negligible quantities of migrants and narcotic substances enter the United States. Trump has also imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, and this lower value is likely due to the large quantities imported from Canada. However, most analysts agree that the tariffs stem from a protectionist policy.
In 2023, the United States imported goods worth 475.6 billion dollars from Mexico, surpassing imports from China for the first time in twenty years. This figure confirms Mexico as the United States' primary trading partner, accounting for 15.5% of total US imports from January to November 2023. The growth in Mexican imports also stems from the application of tariffs on China, which has pushed some production closer to home (reshoring). This occurred thanks to the USMCA trade agreement, signed in 2018 during Trump's first presidency and ratified in 2020.
The United States imports primarily vehicles and automotive components from Mexico, with 80% of Mexican exports going to the USA. Other products include machinery and electrical equipment, including medical devices, crude oil (although the USA is a producer, it imports about 563,000 barrels daily from Mexico), and metallurgical and chemical products. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has stated that she will implement tariff and non-tariff measures against the USA, although she has not specified which ones.
In 2023, the United States imported goods worth 421.1 billion dollars from Canada, with a negative trade balance of 67.9 billion dollars. US imports from Canada are concentrated in oil and energy products, totalling 118 billion dollars in 2023, representing 83% of total US imports in this sector. The USA imports 4.6 million barrels of Canadian oil daily. Other sectors of US imports from Canada include vehicles and automotive components, worth 60 billion dollars in 2023, timber and forest products at 18.7 billion dollars, and agriculture at 31.3 billion dollars.
Canada is also part of the USMCA agreement, and President Justin Trudeau announced the establishment of tariffs against the United States. The rate is the same as that imposed by Trump (25%), but the tariffs only affect certain US products, such as alcoholic beverages, perfumes, fruits and vegetables, clothing and footwear, furniture, sporting goods, and household products. The measure will be implemented in two phases: from 4 February for goods worth a total of 30 billion and twenty-one days later for goods worth a total of 125 billion dollars.
Regarding China, Trump has increased tariffs by ten percent. The main sectors affected are expected to be electronics, automotive, and semiconductors. In late 2024 and January 2025, US importers increased the volume of goods from China. Beijing has responded with several actions. The first is to impose tariffs on certain US products, primarily consumer goods and agricultural products, worth 102.8 billion dollars.
China's second action, perhaps even more significant, is the ban on exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony, which are crucial for the production of semiconductors, green technologies, and advanced weapons systems. Beijing has also filed a complaint with the WTO, accusing the United States of violating international trade rules. Furthermore, China has allowed the yuan to depreciate, thus increasing the global competitiveness of its exports, and is diversifying its markets, focusing on developing markets and Russia, India, and Brazil.
Trump's next move will be directed against the European Union, although the percentages are not yet defined. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes gradual tariffs of 2.5% monthly up to 20%, Trump prefers immediate rates between 10% and 25%. Trump claims that Europe "has treated us very badly", referring to the EU-US trade surplus (85.3 billion euros for Germany and 34.7 for Italy in the first eleven months of 2024).
The European Union has also announced measures to counter the tariffs and to "defend legitimate European interests", as stated by Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič. Measures are expected against sensitive sectors for the United States, such as digital services and increased taxation for technology multinationals. Furthermore, the Union's customs unity could be strengthened to prevent bilateral agreements between the United States and individual member states.
