- In the fourth quarter of 2025, international routes from Poland and Germany to North Sea ports recorded the strongest increases in Europe. Warsaw–Rotterdam contract rates rose by 17.6 points quarter on quarter and by 33.7 points year on year, reflecting capacity pressures linked to export flows.
- The recovery of several German industrial sectors supported routes towards Belgium and France, while the Madrid–Paris corridor saw a decline in spot rates due to weaker foreign orders. The European market therefore showed diverging trends between export corridors and Iberian flows.
- Domestic markets remained fragmented. France maintained stable rates, Spain saw a sharp quarterly drop in spot prices but held firm on contracts, while Germany recorded the steepest annual decline. Italy remained at stagnant levels, with only limited changes.
In the final quarter of 2025, European road freight rates showed a clear divergence between international corridors and domestic markets, according to a report released in February 2026 by Upply. Routes from Poland to Northern European ports recorded the most pronounced increases. The Warsaw–Rotterdam corridor reached an index level of 185.2 points in the contract segment, equivalent to €1.87 per kilometre, up 17.6 points on the quarter and 33.7 points year on year. Spot rates also climbed to 163.2 points, gaining 9.6 points quarter on quarter. This trend is consistent with Polish exports, which rose to €32.4 billion, driven mainly by consumer goods, clothing and chemicals, generating increased pressure on available capacity. The same dynamic affected the Warsaw–Duisburg route, where contract rates reached 163.1 index points, or €1.37 per kilometre, up 7.8 points quarter on quarter. Stronger flows towards German logistics hubs confirm Poland’s role as an export-oriented manufacturing platform and amplify demand for links to Northern European ports.
Germany’s industrial base showed signs of recovery in several logistics-intensive sectors. Output linked to high technology increased by 4.4% quarter on quarter, pharmaceuticals by 6.3% and motor vehicles by 6%. The Duisburg–Antwerp corridor recorded contract rates of 170.3 index points, or €3.09 per kilometre, up 13.4 points on the quarter and 26.8 points year on year. Spot rates reached 153.9 points, or €3.23 per kilometre, rising by 15.5 points quarter on quarter and 9.9 points year on year. On the Duisburg–Lille route, spot rates increased by 4.7 points over the quarter, while contract rates edged down slightly quarter on quarter but remained in positive territory year on year, up 3.2 points.
The Iberian corridor presented the opposite picture. Spain’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6, signalling contraction, amid declining export orders and stronger price competition. On the Madrid–Paris route, spot rates dropped to 136.2 index points, or €1.30 per kilometre, down 2.3 points on the quarter. Contract rates stood at 131.5 points, or €1.23 per kilometre, with a marginal quarterly decline of 0.1 points. The adjustment first affected the spot market, while contract rates showed greater inertia.
In domestic markets, trends remained uneven and closely tied to internal demand. In Spain, despite estimated GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025, the end of the year saw declining consumer confidence and a drop in the production of capital and consumer goods. Domestic spot rates fell by 16.5 points quarter on quarter, while contract rates rose by 1.1 points over the quarter and by 5.5 points year on year. The gap between spot and contract rates nevertheless points to expectations of a medium-term recovery.
In Italy, economic growth slowed to 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025, with a marked decline in automotive and chemical production. Spot rates fell by 6.2 points month on month in December, remaining broadly unchanged over the quarter, up 0.3 points, and over the year, up 0.1 points. The contract market showed relative resilience, with an increase of around 5 points both quarter on quarter and year on year, despite a downturn in the final part of the year.
France stood out for greater stability. With a manufacturing PMI of 50.7, the highest in 42 months, domestic contract rates rose by 3.1 points year on year, with limited quarterly changes of 0.61 points. Spot rates increased by 3.2 points month on month in December and remained almost unchanged compared with the previous quarter, down by one point. The picture suggests more consistent domestic demand and lower volatility in flows.
Germany represented the weakest domestic market among those analysed. The manufacturing PMI fell to a ten-month low in December 2025, with new orders declining. National spot rates dropped to 118.7 index points, down 17.2 points year on year and 6.3 points in December alone. Contract rates also declined, falling by 3.5 points quarter on quarter and 3.2 points year on year. The contraction confirms a reduction in domestic volumes and more intense short-term competitive pressure.
Overall, a two-speed Europe is emerging. Corridors linked to exports towards Northern European ports concentrated the most pronounced increases, supported by real goods flows and stable demand for capacity. Domestic markets, by contrast, were characterised by weaker or stagnant dynamics, with the spot segment absorbing demand fluctuations first. For transport and logistics operators, this implies more selective route management, with close attention to imbalances between outbound and return flows and to the different speeds of adjustment between the spot and contract markets.
Antonio Illariuzzi
