- The Italian economy remained stagnant in 2025, with GDP rising by 0.1% in the third quarter and by 0.4% year on year. Industry and inventories held back expansion, while services and net exports only partially offset manufacturing weakness.
- The production downturn hit the most logistics-intensive sectors: automotive, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and high technology all recorded quarterly declines. A 20% drop in Stellantis production sharply reduced demand for urgent transport.
- Domestic road freight spot rates fell to 111.7 points in December, down 6.2 points month on month. Contract rates stood at 116.2 points and rose by around five points quarter on quarter and year on year, signalling a different negotiating dynamic.
In 2025, the Italian road freight market operated in a context of economic stagnation and industrial contraction that directly affected rate formation, according to a report released by Upply in February 2026. In the third quarter, Italian GDP rose by 0.1%, after months of near standstill, bringing the year-on-year increase to 0.4%. Growth was supported by services, agriculture and net exports, which contributed 0.5 percentage points, but this was almost entirely offset by a decline in industry and a reduction in inventories, which subtracted half a point.
The macroeconomic backdrop was directly reflected in demand for road freight transport. Manufacturing weakness reduced the need for additional capacity, particularly capacity required at short notice, putting pressure on the spot segment. This is where pricing dynamics show the clearest sign of the downturn. In December 2025, the domestic spot rate index stood at 111.7 points, down 6.2 points month on month. Quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year changes remained broadly stable, at +0.3 and +0.1 points respectively, confirming a flat market with no capacity tensions. The absence of demand peaks and the decline in industrial flows removed the urgency conditions that normally support short-term rates.
The main factor was the widespread contraction in industrial output across the most logistics-intensive sectors. On a quarterly basis, high technology fell by 2.7%, pharmaceuticals by 5.6%, chemicals by 5.4%, and motor vehicles and trailers by 4.4%. Chemicals were also affected by a 13% year-on-year drop in sales at Eni’s Versalis division. The most critical figure concerns automotive: Stellantis’ Italian production fell by 20% year on year, reaching 379,706 vehicles in 2025, the lowest level in 71 years. A contraction of this magnitude translates into lower volumes of components, semi-finished goods and finished vehicles along the entire supply chain. The reduction in output not only affects volumes but also alters the structure of transport demand. In a context of weak consumption and falling inventories, companies plan more cautiously and reduce urgent procurement. This puts further pressure on the spot segment, where competition among carriers increases and margins are squeezed.
In contrast to the spot market, domestic contract rates showed relative resilience. In December, the index stood at 116.2 points. Although recording a monthly decline of 3.8 points, agreed rates were up by around five points both quarter on quarter and year on year. The divergence between spot and contract rates highlights a dual dynamic: on the one hand, immediate demand weakness; on the other, the need to preserve minimum economic conditions in medium-term relationships. The stability of contracts can be attributed to several factors. In an uncertain environment, part of the client base preferred to secure capacity under defined conditions, avoiding exposure to potential future volatility. On the supply side, carriers sought to defend structural rates to offset high fixed costs and a persistent driver shortage. The gap between 111.7 points on the spot market and 116.2 points for contracts indicates that rebalancing is taking place mainly in the short-term market, while established relationships are only partially absorbing the pressure.
A further contextual element is the trend in international road flows. Traffic between Poland and Italy showed an irregular pattern between 2024 and the end of 2025, with volumes ranging from 0.15 to 0.25 million tonnes per quarter. In summer 2025, volumes fell to around 0.15 million tonnes, followed by a partial recovery in the fourth quarter. The instability of flows makes capacity utilisation less predictable and reinforces caution in rate negotiations.
On the operating cost side, Upply’s report notes a downward convergence in pump prices for diesel, HVO and natural gas. In Italy, diesel followed the European trend towards deflation. Lower fuel costs provided partial relief for operators, but did not offset declining volumes and the compression of spot rates. Without a recovery in industrial production, the benefit to margins remains limited.
The outlook for 2026 is shaped by external risks that could further affect transport demand. The report points to possible US tariff measures on European exports and the reallocation to Europe of Chinese goods at average prices 20% lower. For Italy, the overlap between national manufacturing specialisations and lower-cost Chinese supply represents a vulnerability. Additional pressure on exports could translate into lower intermediate and finished goods volumes, with direct effects on freight rates.
Overall, pricing dynamics in Italian road freight in 2025 reflect an industrial system under strain. The spot segment appears to be the first shock absorber of the manufacturing crisis, with the index falling to 111.7 points and showing almost no change quarter on quarter or year on year. Contract rates, at 116.2 points and up by around five points both quarter on quarter and year on year, indicate a selective defence of economic conditions in ongoing relationships. According to the report’s authors, without a recovery in industrial production and consumption, competitive pressure in the spot market is set to continue, while companies’ economic sustainability will depend on their ability to consolidate stable contractual relationships and adapt supply to lower volumes.
Antonio Illariuzzi
