Iata’s monthly air cargo report for October 2025 shows a historic peak in traffic, measured in freight tonne-kilometres. According to the association’s data, total demand rose by 4.1 per cent year on year, extending an eight-month run of positive performance. The sector is showing solid momentum, driven mainly by international flows, which increased by 4.8 per cent. The trend remains positive even after adjusting for seasonal factors, with growth at 3.8 per cent.
Despite record volumes, the load factor weakened to 47.1 per cent, down 0.5 percentage points compared with October 2024. Capacity increased by 5.1 per cent year on year, outpacing demand and creating structural pressure on the balance between supply and available traffic. This imbalance is contributing to softer yields, which fell by 4.7 per cent year on year. Iata, however, notes a short-term reversal: rates were up 1.7 per cent month on month, marking the fifth consecutive increase.
Additional capacity is coming primarily from the bellies of passenger aircraft. Belly-hold supply rose by 6.4 per cent year on year and now accounts for 54.3 per cent of total international capacity. A sharp rise on the North America–Asia route, up 23.9 per cent, offset the reduction in all-cargo flights. Dedicated freighters also posted a 6.4 per cent increase in capacity, but their relative share declined on several key corridors, particularly across the transpacific. Airlines shifted part of their freighter capacity from the North America–Asia route, which fell by 5.6 per cent, to the Europe–Asia corridor, which grew by 21.4 per cent.
Regional performance remains highly uneven. Africa is the most dynamic market, with demand rising by 16.6 per cent year on year, supported by links with Asia and the Middle East. The Asia-Pacific region continued to expand robustly, up 8.3 per cent, driven by intra-Asian routes, up 9 per cent, and Europe–Asia flows, up 11.7 per cent. The Asia–North America lane remained negative, down 1.4 per cent in October and 1.1 per cent since the start of the year, affected by trade tensions and supply chain realignment.
In the Middle East, demand increased by 5.7 per cent year on year, bolstered by the Asia corridor, which grew by 11.5 per cent. Europe showed improvement, rising from 2.6 per cent in September to 4.3 per cent in October, amid a gradual recovery in manufacturing. The two Americas recorded negative results: North America posted a 2.7 per cent decline, the third consecutive month of contraction and the sixth in 2025; Latin America and the Caribbean also recorded a 2.7 per cent drop, with the steepest load-factor decline among all regions.
The report also highlights worsening operating costs. Jet fuel prices rose by 2.5 per cent year on year. The Brent crude–jet fuel spread reached 27.3 US dollars (around 25.2 euros), a 92.3 per cent increase year on year. The trend is driven by a shortage of middle distillates and refining priorities shifting towards diesel production. In this environment, average global yields fell to 2.46 US dollars per kilogramme (around 2.27 euros per kilogramme), although rising rates in recent months suggest an adjustment to market conditions and seasonality.
Economic indicators paint a mixed picture, although with signs of industrial improvement. The global manufacturing PMI stands at 51.45 points, indicating expansion. The PMI for new export orders remains weak at 48.31, reflecting caution in international trade, also influenced by US tariff policies. Global industrial production grew by 3.7 per cent in September, the fastest pace since March 2025.
According to Iata, the strength of manufacturing output should continue to support air cargo demand in the coming months, particularly in high-value segments, while the weakness of export orders remains a source of uncertainty towards the end of the year.
Antonio Illariuzzi
