- Xeneta published its mid-year update to the Air Freight Outlook 2026 on 17 July 2026, revising its annual rate forecast: long-term rates, which in December 2025 had been expected to fall by 5-10%, are now forecast to rise by 5-15%, following the supply chain shock caused by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East at the end of February.
- In the first half of 2026, air capacity supply grew by only 1%, while demand rose by 4%, above the original forecast of 2-3%. Global rates, combining spot and long-term rates, increased by 17% year on year, while spot rates in May were around 40% higher than a year earlier.
- Two opposing trends are driving demand: demand linked to artificial intelligence is accelerating, with global semiconductor sales up 106% year on year in April 2026, while e-commerce is slowing, with Chinese exports of low-value goods down 7% in May, the sixth consecutive monthly decline.
Xeneta has upgraded its air freight rate forecast for 2026, moving from a 5-10% decline predicted in December 2025 to a 5-15% increase for the full year, according to the Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update, published on 17 July by the freight rate intelligence company. Xeneta said the revision was mainly due to the supply chain shock triggered by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East at the end of February, which substantially altered the balance between demand and air capacity supply.
The escalation on 28 February removed 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight. The impact was reflected in supply growth in the first half of 2026, which stood at just 1%. The report says demand rose by 4% over the same period, exceeding the 2-3% range set out in the original December forecast. The imbalance between supply and demand pushed rates higher across the board: global air freight rates, combining spot and long-term components, increased by 17% year on year in the first half. Spot rates in particular rose by about 40% in May compared with the same month in 2025.
"On 27 February I would have bet on the Netherlands winning the World Cup before air freight rates rising by 40%. Yet it happened, with global spot rates up by around 40% year on year in May," said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, adding that spot rates have now stabilised on a plateau, without falling. "Demand continues to defy gravity: despite everything that has been thrown at it, the market still moved more volumes than last year," he added, noting that market fundamentals are expected to shift in favour of shippers in the second half of the year, with demand set to slow and supply recovering from the Middle East shock.
For the Xeneta executive, 2026 has once again confirmed air freight’s ability to withstand shocks to global supply chains. The missile attacks that shut down the main air hubs in the Middle East overnight represent, in his view, the most significant and sudden shock to air capacity in recent memory. While the Covid-19 pandemic may have been a larger event, it unfolded over a relatively extended period rather than within a few hours. As a result, while sea services are only now starting to flow again through the Strait of Hormuz, air charters were back in operation within a few days, van de Wouw noted.
Two opposing trends are meanwhile reshaping the composition of demand. On the one hand, growth linked to artificial intelligence is accelerating, driven by shipments of semiconductors and hardware: global semiconductor sales more than doubled year on year in April 2026, with an increase of 106%, the strongest growth since records began in 1986. Goods linked to artificial intelligence still account for less than 10% of total air cargo volume, but they are concentrated on the Transpacific, which has become the strongest corridor of the year.
On the other hand, e-commerce is slowing: Chinese exports of low-value goods fell by 7% year on year in May 2026, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. In addition, on 1 July the European Union removed the EUR150 customs duty exemption threshold for low-value imports, replacing it with a fixed duty of EUR3 per item and a further EUR2 handling cost expected from November, a tightening that reduces the scope for small-parcel trade which in recent years has fuelled growth in e-commerce-related air cargo. "While e-commerce demand is cooling, traffic linked to artificial intelligence is booming, particularly on the Transpacific. I do not see how the growth engine of e-commerce can be restarted: there will always be consumer demand for cheap goods produced in Asia, but the extraordinary growth of recent years will not be replicated," van de Wouw said.
The Xeneta executive finally urged caution over the possible recurrence of geopolitical shocks in the second half of the year. On 27 February, he recalled, no one would have predicted what happened the next day, when Dubai airport was hit by missile attacks in a scenario that until then had been considered unthinkable. There may be another unforeseen variable, van de Wouw said, and it may come at a cost for shippers. Those with real-time data and intelligence will be best placed to deal with the next shock.
A.M.B.
