The global insurance sector specialising in marine, aviation and transport (Mat) is bracing for a slowdown due to the implementation of tariffs on Us imports. This is the conclusion of the latest analysis by GlobalData, which forecasts a reduction in the projected annual growth rate of written insurance premiums from 6.9% to 6.4% for the period 2025–2029.
The study reveals that in 2024, the United States accounted for around 50% of global Mat insurance premiums. With the introduction of tariffs, the firm anticipates a 1.4% contraction in Us premiums as early as 2025, with a global impact of 0.7%. The consequences will be particularly felt in countries heavily reliant on exports to the Us, such as Mexico, China, Canada, Germany and Japan, which together made up 53% of Us imports in 2023. The revised forecasts point to a decline in the compound annual growth rate of Mat premiums between 2025 and 2029: down 0.6 percentage points for China, 0.5 for Mexico, Canada and Germany, and 0.2 for Japan.
Swarup Kumar Sahoo, senior insurance analyst at GlobalData, explains that the “Liberation Day” tariffs will significantly slow the growth of the Mat segment. Despite a possible temporary surge between April and June, due to the 90-day grace period, the long-term effects will be negative and will impact insurers’ profitability. Marine cargo insurance will be affected across the board, with the exception of Canada and Mexico, where the greatest impact is expected in the aviation and land transport segments.
Another key issue concerns changes in the value of exported goods. If the exporter absorbs the tariff cost, the shipment value will decline, reducing the insurable base. Conversely, if the burden is passed on to the importer and ultimately to the end consumer, demand may fall. In both scenarios, the volume of insured goods is set to shrink. In an effort to reduce costs, many operators are consolidating shipments or increasing order sizes. This leads to a higher concentration of high-value goods, raising the risk of theft or damage. Additional challenges include more complex customs procedures and rising ancillary costs such as demurrage and storage penalties.
Insurers are therefore required to redesign their policies, incorporating new risks and adjusting contractual terms. Underwriting costs are increasing, as is the likelihood of claims. These developments are compounded by operational decisions already in place: from 2 May 2025, the United States has withdrawn the tariff exemption for goods valued under 800 dollars originating from China and Hong Kong. In response, Dhl has suspended high-value shipments to the Us in the direct-to-consumer channel, while several airlines have halted cargo services for premium goods, directly affecting the dedicated insurance segment.
