The heavy semi-trailer market in Western Europe is gearing up for a year of growth in 2025, following two years of sharp contraction. The report, published in February 2025 by Clear International, indicates that sales in the sector will see an increase of more than ten per cent, laying the groundwork for a return to pre-pandemic levels by 2027. The period from 2026 to 2028 is expected to experience growing demand, with the potential to reach the historical peaks recorded in 2008 and 2018.
According to researchers, one of the key factors driving this recovery is the monetary policy of the European Central Bank, which in February 2024 announced an interest rate cut, bringing the main rate down to 2.9 per cent. Similar measures have been adopted in the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland, contributing to improved credit access conditions and supporting investment in the sector.
This recovery is set to breathe new life into an industry that has faced significant volatility in recent years. Following a strong rebound in 2021 and 2022 after the pandemic crisis, production slowed again in the 2023-2024 period. Registrations in Western Europe in 2024 declined by more than ten per cent compared to the previous year, exacerbated by a drop in exports to Russia and Belarus. In the Russian market, China has stepped in to fill the gap left by European manufacturers, supplying trucks and semi-trailers through its high production capacity and competitive costs. This trend has particularly affected major exporters from Germany and other Western European countries.
Despite the sector's challenges, demand for road freight transport, measured in tonne-kilometres, showed signs of stabilisation in 2024 after a four per cent decline in 2023. A recovery is expected in 2025, driven by stronger economic growth. The OECD’s Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) from January 2025 signal a positive trend for the economies of the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, and Spain, with values above the long-term average. France, while still slightly below the growth threshold, is expected to follow this trajectory in the coming months.
According to Gary Beecroft, director of Clear International, the heavy semi-trailer market will recover more than half of the losses sustained over the previous two years in 2025. The following years will see gradual growth, bringing the sector closer to its past record levels. The report highlights that 77 per cent of goods in Europe are transported by road, with most of the volume moved via semi-trailers. The performance of the sector is therefore closely linked to economic growth and freight transport conditions.
