Container shipping is entering an early phase of overheating. In the week of 14 May 2026, the composite Drewry World Container Index rose by 12% week on week to $2,553 per 40ft container. The acceleration is far more pronounced on export routes from Asia to Western markets, while transatlantic corridors and return routes remain broadly stable.
The sharpest increase was recorded on the Shanghai-Genoa route, where freight rates reached $3,701 per FEU, up 20% in seven days. The Shanghai-Rotterdam route gained 11% to $2,413, while Shanghai-New York, serving the US East Coast, reached $4,252, a rise of 14%. On the US West Coast, the Shanghai-Los Angeles route rose by 10% to $3,357. By comparison, transatlantic routes showed much more limited increases: New York-Rotterdam stood at $1,030 and Rotterdam-New York at $2,388, confirming that the freight rate shock is confined to the Asian market and to the corridors affected by disruption in the Middle East.
Both structural and short-term factors are behind this surge. On the supply side, the main carriers are aggressively applying a combination of surcharges: Emergency Fuel Surcharge (EFS), Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) and General Rate Increase (GRI). Yang Ming Line, for example, announced a GRI of $2,000 per FEU from 15 May 2026. These rate tools are being combined with strict capacity management: seven “blank sailings” are scheduled on the transpacific route next week alone, meaning seven cancelled departures, a move that reduces available supply and supports upward pressure on rates.
On the demand side, shippers are bringing bookings forward well ahead of the traditional summer peak-season timetable. The main concern is the continued crisis in the Red Sea and instability around the Strait of Hormuz, against the backdrop of tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran. Vessel diversions via the Cape of Good Hope, made necessary by the insecurity of Suez transits, are extending sailing times and reducing the effective capacity available on the market. This combination is pushing companies to secure vessel space well in advance, adding further pressure on bookings.
Analysis of individual routes reveals a structural imbalance between Asian export lanes and return routes. While Shanghai-Genoa has climbed to $3,701, the reverse Los Angeles-Shanghai route is essentially unchanged at $791, with no week-on-week movement. Rotterdam-Shanghai also increased only marginally, up 2% to $644. This gap confirms that demand pressure is entirely concentrated on Chinese exports to Western consumer markets, while empty container repositioning is taking place at minimal rates.
One anomaly is worth noting in the annual figure for the Shanghai-New York route. Despite the 14% weekly jump, the year-on-year change remains negative, at -2%. This indicates that a year ago rates on this specific route started from a considerably higher base than on other routes, which instead show positive double-digit annual changes. Rotterdam-Shanghai, for example, is up 41% year on year.
According to Drewry’s forecasts, freight rates are set to continue rising in the coming weeks, supported by a rebound in demand and higher energy costs affecting bunker fuel prices. Geopolitical uncertainty also gives shipping companies a strong justification for maintaining restrictive pricing policies, with tighter FAK rates and further GRIs already announced.
For companies managing supply chains dependent on Asian imports, the situation calls for a review of logistics budget plans for the second and third quarters of 2026. The risk of rolled cargo, meaning containers left behind because of a lack of space, is currently high on both the transpacific and Asia-Europe routes. The choice between long-term contracts, where still available on sustainable terms, and rapidly rising spot rates will require growing attention in transport procurement management.
