The global air cargo market opened 2026 with demand up 5.6% year on year, compared with a 3.6% increase in capacity. Data released by Iata show stronger international flows, which rose by 7.2%, while the average load factor climbed to 45.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier. The month was influenced by the advance of shipments ahead of the Lunar New Year on 17 February 2026, which concentrated part of the volumes in the preceding weeks.
In absolute terms, total industry capacity reached 49.7 billion available tonne-kilometres, the highest level ever recorded for the month of January. Although supply growth remained positive, it slowed compared with the 4.7% recorded in the previous period, signalling a gradual normalisation after the expansion of recent years and delivery delays for new aircraft that are affecting some regions.
Asia Pacific confirmed its role as the main engine of the market, accounting for 35.9% in 2025 and posting demand growth of 7.8%. In the international segment, growth reached 9.4%, with a load factor of 50.4%. The region benefited from e-commerce-related flows and the strength of regional production chains, although Iata pointed to a slowdown in capacity expansion, which rose by 3.3%, the weakest January figure since 2020.
Europe recorded a 6.9% increase in demand, with capacity up 4.9% and the load factor reaching 54.1%, the highest among the macro-regions. In international traffic alone, the load factor rose to 56.2%. The trend was supported by long-haul connections to Asia and North America, with the Europe-Asia corridor up 15.2%, the strongest performance in the past 17 months according to Iata. The figures suggest a strengthening of manufacturing flows between the two industrial hubs.
In North America, overall demand declined by 0.5%, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction, albeit at a slower pace than in December. Capacity fell by 0.2%, with a load factor of 43.3%. However, the international segment showed signs of recovery: demand rose by 1.4% while capacity contracted by 0.9%, pushing the load factor up by 3.4 percentage points to 46.6%. The Asia-North America corridor remained weak, down 0.6%, still affected by tariff distortions and the reorganisation of supply chains.
The Middle East posted demand growth of 9.3%, but a 9.9% expansion in capacity pushed the load factor down to 40.6%, the lowest level since 1990 according to Iata. The region continues to play a central role as an intercontinental hub, supported by Middle East-Asia flows, up 12.9%, and Middle East-Europe, up 10.2%. However, capacity growth outpaced traffic, weighing on operating margins.
Africa led the expansion with an 18.2% increase in demand, the seventh consecutive month of double-digit growth. With capacity up 4.3%, the load factor rose to 43.5%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points. Africa-Asia traffic grew by 41.6%, the highest level in the past 20 months, signalling stronger trade between the two regions and deeper integration into global logistics flows.
Latin America and the Caribbean, by contrast, recorded a 2% decline in demand, with capacity down 1.4% and a load factor of 32%, the lowest among all regions. In international traffic, the contraction eased to -0.4%, but the environment remained weak, partly due to softer links with North America.
Overall, the international segment accounted for 88% of the market and grew faster than the total, with a load factor of 48.5%. Intra-Asia routes, up 14.3%, and corridors between Asia and Europe reinforced the role of long-haul as the main driver of growth, while transpacific routes continued to show signs of slowing.
On the cost side, the price of jet fuel stood at 90.3 dollars, down 6.5% year on year, with a spread of 23.5 dollars compared with Brent. However, lower energy costs did not translate into stronger yields: cargo unit revenues fell by 0.8% compared with January 2025, marking the ninth consecutive annual decline, with a monthly drop of 8.3%. The picture points to continued competitive pressure in a context of gradual capacity reallocation.
