Container shipping on East-West routes is moving at two speeds. In its World Container Index released on Thursday 17 September 2026, Drewry said the average composite spot index rose to $4,500 per 40-foot container, with a weekly increase of 1%. The rise was driven by Transpacific freight rates, while those between Asia and Europe continued to fall. Compared with the same period in 2025, the composite index remains 135% higher.
The biggest movement was on the Shanghai-New York route, where rates rose by 7% in seven days, breaking through the $10,000 threshold to reach $10,394 per FEU, the highest level among the routes covered by the WCI and an increase of 191% year on year. On the route to the US West Coast, Shanghai-Los Angeles gained 5% to reach $7,712. Rates on this route are up 201% year on year. In just two weeks, the rate has risen by more than $500, from $7,185 on 3 September. Drewry attributes the increase to carriers' capacity management ahead of Golden Week, China's national holiday period in early October. The UK company's Container Capacity Insight counts nine cancelled sailings for next week, compared with eight this week. Analysts therefore expect a further modest increase in rates.
US freight forwarder J.M. Rodgers provides a broader view of the trend, estimating that carriers have withdrawn around 20% of Transpacific capacity through cancellations. According to the same source, shipping lines are rationing space ahead of China's National Day holiday, giving priority to contract customers and premium bookings. The North American trade environment is also having an impact, with tariffs introduced by Washington now covering 54% of US goods imports and the average tariff rate reaching a record 11.7%.
On the Asia-Europe trade, the trend is moving in the opposite direction. Shanghai-Rotterdam fell by 9% to $3,626, while Shanghai-Genoa declined by 5% to $4,016. Rates nevertheless remain 90% and 88% higher year on year respectively. Over the past 14 days, the Rotterdam route has lost $466, or 11.4%, while the Genoa route has fallen by $352, or 8.1%. As the rate to Northern Europe is falling faster, freight to the Ligurian port is now $390 higher than to the Dutch port.
The decline comes despite vessel capacity remaining constrained. Drewry reports four cancelled sailings on the Asia-Europe trade for next week, compared with just one this week. Vessel waiting times in Shanghai rose from 65 hours in week 36 to 78 hours in week 37. The company nevertheless expects a further modest decline in freight rates to Europe, as demand remains relatively weak and services gradually return to the Suez Canal. Geopolitical diversions, congestion and traffic growth have so far absorbed much of the new capacity, but as these factors ease, underlying weakness could emerge first on European routes.
Drewry identifies two sources of uncertainty. The first is renewed security risks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, which could slow the return of services via Suez. The second is the possibility of strikes at German ports, where the wage dispute remains unresolved, potentially worsening congestion in Northern Europe. In a ballot by the German trade union Ver.di, which closed on 14 September, 64.7% of more than 5,500 participants rejected the employers' latest offer. The next step is a vote on possible indefinite strike action. The negotiations cover around 11,000 workers in Hamburg, Bremen, Bremerhaven, Emden, Brake and Wilhelmshaven. The offer provides for a 3.4% increase in hourly pay for 12 months, while Ver.di is seeking 8.2%, with a minimum increase of €2.50 an hour. German ports have already been hit by a 24-hour strike on 18 August and a 48-hour strike that began on 2 September. On 4 September, the Dutch ports of Rotterdam, Amsterdam and Zeeland also stopped work.
On backhaul routes and the Atlantic, movements were minimal. Los Angeles-Shanghai fell by 2% to $789, while Rotterdam-Shanghai rose by 1% to $604. Rotterdam-New York remained unchanged at $3,121, up 62% year on year. New York-Rotterdam slipped by 1% to $1,122, returning to the same level recorded on 3 September.
M.G.
