Italian third-party logistics returned to growth in 2024 and 2025 after the contraction seen in 2023, largely linked to international transport rate trends. According to the “Gino Marchet” Contract Logistics Observatory of the Politecnico di Milano, presented on 13 November 2025, the sector expanded despite a slowdown in manufacturing activity. The preliminary estimate for 2024 turnover stands at €110.3 billion, up 1.7 per cent in nominal terms and 0.7 per cent in real terms. For 2025, turnover is expected to rise by 1.9 per cent nominally (+0.3 per cent in real terms), reaching €112.4 billion. The market structure appears stabilised at roughly 79,000 companies after the contractions of previous years, although this stability masks a phase of profound change.
Within this context, the study highlights a decline in the outsourcing of logistics activities, with the outsourcing rate falling from 45.5 per cent in 2022 to 43.4 per cent in 2023, partly due to lower international transport costs. In third-party logistics, the average duration of warehousing contracts has dropped from 3.4 years to 3 years, while the number of contracts containing termination clauses imposed by suppliers has risen to 57 per cent of cases analysed.
In 2025 production costs increased further: labour costs grew by 4.4 per cent, with the average annual cost per employee reaching €46,451; electricity rose by 7.9 per cent; and rental charges by 3.5 per cent. Diesel (-3.7 per cent) and the cost of money (-22 per cent) moved in the opposite direction. Overall, uncertainty and cost pressure have reshaped company structures. Vertical integration continues to advance: among the 43 logistics operators classified as Top Players, direct employees rose from 30,700 in 2022 to 34,600 in 2023, pushing the share of personnel costs from 13.6 per cent to 16 per cent. At the same time, the share of outsourced services fell from 71.9 per cent to 68.9 per cent of turnover.
The sector also remains strategically dynamic. In 2025, 24 acquisition deals were recorded, mainly aimed at strengthening competitiveness in specific market segments and acquiring new capabilities. Sector-wide figures for 2023 show shifts within the supply chain: warehouse operators increased by 2.8 per cent and couriers by 15, while road transport firms declined by 734, logistics operators by 21 and freight forwarders by 9.
Cost uncertainty has also affected contractual relationships. An analysis of 14,000 contracts shows an increase in indexed elements in 74 per cent of transport contracts and 68 per cent of warehousing contracts, with particular attention to adjustments linked to national minimum wages and Istat indices. Almost all transport contracts (96 per cent) contain clauses tied to fuel costs. Protective measures are also expanding, with insurance policies appearing in 46 per cent of contracts and surety guarantees requested from suppliers in 41 per cent of cases. Collaboration is increasing, reflected in greater information sharing (77 per cent) and the formalisation of continuous improvement programmes in 59 per cent of relationships.
Alongside cost management, the environmental transition continues, albeit at a slower pace. Some 68 per cent of companies are prioritising climate impact measurement, while 78 per cent have paused initiatives requiring significant investment. Packaging is the most active area, influenced by the new EU Packaging Regulation: measures focus on reducing material impact and increasing reuse cycles through structured reverse logistics models and advanced traceability systems.
Artificial intelligence remains a key transformative factor. Research involving 7,187 client companies shows that 30 per cent have already launched at least one AI project in logistics, a figure set to rise to 44 per cent over the next three years. Adoption varies by company size: 46 per cent among large firms, 42 per cent in medium-sized businesses and 19 per cent among smaller companies. AI is mainly used for office-based tasks such as order management and demand forecasting (both at 14 per cent), while adoption in operational processes is lower, with AI deployed in 12 per cent of warehousing processes and 7 per cent of transport activities. Among logistics operators, adoption is expected to jump from 24 per cent to 69 per cent over the next three years.
According to the study, 81 per cent of companies using artificial intelligence have achieved benefits, with an average satisfaction rating of 7.7 out of 10. The most frequent impacts concern process quality, productivity, service improvement, cost reduction and environmental performance. Only a small minority (11 per cent) have focused on replacing human labour; most (24 per cent) aim to enhance workforce capabilities. Key success factors include reliable data availability, robust IT resources, openness to innovation and the development of internal skills.
The research also highlights concerns around AI adoption, especially the perception of limited benefits among non-adopters and the difficulty managers often face in identifying suitable applications—an underestimated yet strategic issue. Even where application areas have been identified, many companies lack a clear project governance framework. Operational barriers to AI adoption are also identified, notably data availability and quality, the adequacy of IT resources, the availability of specialised skills and corporate culture’s readiness to embrace technological change.
Commenting on the findings, Marco Melacini of the Contract Logistics Observatory emphasised how cost volatility and labour shortages are reshaping processes and strategies. According to Damiano Frosi, AI has become essential to balancing innovation, efficiency and sustainability, but requires strong governance and high-quality corporate data to generate tangible benefits.
