According to the latest "West European Trailer Market Report" by Clear International, the forecast for sales in 2024/25 appears weaker than previously anticipated. The November 2024 report highlights a further decline in trailer registrations, with forecasts revised downward for both 2024 and 2025, particularly after worse-than-expected results in August. In 2023, the heavy trailer market experienced a 10.9% decrease, and an additional 8.8% decline is expected for 2024.
Growth beginning in 2025 is projected to bring the market back to levels close to those of 2022 by 2027. On a positive note, the European Central Bank's decision to cut the main interest rate to 3.4%, announced in October 2024, provides some optimism. The United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland also followed with interest rate reductions, fostering hopes of economic recovery.
Trailer production in Western Europe has faced challenging times in recent years. After a significant post-pandemic recovery in 2021/22, the sector experienced a downturn. Registrations in 2024 are 13% lower compared to the first nine months of 2023. Additionally, exports to Russia and Belarus have been drastically reduced or completely halted, with Russian demand largely met by Chinese suppliers, whose massive production capacity has filled the gap left by European manufacturers.
As a result, trailer production in Western Europe saw a drastic decline in 2024, with a particularly significant impact on major German exporters. From 2021 to 2024, investment levels in Germany were among the lowest of the main European economies—an unusual statistic for a nation typically regarded as a leader in investment growth. The conflict in Ukraine and economic difficulties have led to increased instances of reduced workweeks and temporary plant closures. In the past, German production exceeded that of France, the United Kingdom, and Spain combined.
Economic challenges, a lack of business confidence, and a reduction in demand for trailer replacements have coincided with a decline in road transport demand (down 4% in 2023, similar to the level recorded during the pandemic in 2020), further dampening companies' willingness to invest in new transport equipment. Gary Beecroft, Managing Director of Clear International, notes: “Trailer market sales for 2024/25 will be lower than anticipated in the May 2024 report, but subsequent years will remain close to the expected market trajectory, eventually reaching the historic peaks of 2008 and 2018.”
