The Chinese Golden Week holiday continues to negatively affect the global air cargo market, with only a partial recovery in volumes. According to weekly reports by WorldAcd, tonnage from China to the United States remains well below normal levels, indicating a decline that has persisted since July. During Week 41, from October 7 to 13, 2024, China-US volumes increased by just 1%, after a 20% drop the previous week, which is a weaker recovery compared to 2023, when volumes quickly returned to pre-Golden Week levels. Meanwhile, cargo traffic to the US from the entire Asia Pacific region remained flat after a 10% drop the previous week, largely driven by the weakness of the China-US market.
Region-by-region analysis shows that cargo volumes transported from the Asia Pacific region increased by 6% during Week 41, marking a 12% year-on-year increase. Africa also recorded a 4% increase, while Europe and the Middle East & South Asia region each saw a growth of 1%. In contrast, tonnage departing from North America decreased by 1%, while Central and South America experienced a 3% contraction. Globally, transported tonnage increased by 2%, surpassing 2023 levels by 8%.
Regarding rates, average worldwide prices—including both spot and contract rates—remained stable at $2.58 per kilogram, with the largest increases seen from Central and South America (+2%) and Europe (+2%), while North America experienced a 1% decline. Global spot rates showed a slight growth of 1%, reaching $2.85 per kilogram and standing 20% above last year's levels.
Despite total tonnage from Asia Pacific to the United States remaining comparable to last year, volumes from China to the US saw a significant decline of 19% compared to 2023. This represents the largest annual percentage drop recorded in 2024 for this route, seemingly triggered by increased customs checks in the United States, particularly at Los Angeles Airport (LAX). China-LAX volumes in Week 41 fell by 39% year-on-year, with the Golden Week further slowing the recovery. Looking at September as a reference, China-US tonnage declined by 8%, while China-LAX saw a 19% drop compared to 2023.
However, spot rates from China to the US showed signs of recovery in Week 41, rising by 8% to $5.28 per kilogram after a 7% drop the previous week. Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US also partially recovered, increasing by 3% to $6.11 per kilogram, up 45% from 2023 levels.
China-Europe routes also saw only a partial recovery in Week 41. After a 17% drop the previous week, volumes increased by 5%, while last year they had almost fully recovered in the same post-Golden Week period. Conversely, volumes from Hong Kong to Europe remained stable, supported by e-commerce, with a 26% year-on-year increase in Week 41.
