During the twenty-fourth week of 2025 (from 9 to 15 June), data from WorldACD Market Data revealed that air cargo traffic is experiencing significant disruption in the Middle East and South Asia, with a marked drop in volumes due to the coincidence of Eid al-Adha celebrations and the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, which flared into open conflict on 13 June.
The volume of cargo departing from the MESA region (Middle East & South Asia) fell by a further 9% compared to the previous week, which had already seen an 8% decline due to Eid. Intra-regional MESA traffic dropped by 26%, while routes to Africa saw a 17% contraction. South Asia was particularly hard hit, with an overall weekly decrease of 13%. Bangladesh suffered a dramatic 43% drop, followed by Pakistan with a 30% decline. The situation worsened further due to a 21% fall in cargo flows from the Levant, following the suspension of numerous flights after Israeli airstrikes began targeting sites in Iran on 13 June. According to WorldACD, the decline in volumes from the Levant accounted for 12% of the overall weekly drop in the MESA region, with the remainder primarily attributed to South Asia.
In an otherwise negative regional context, the sharp recovery of cargo flows from the United Arab Emirates stood out, with a 15% weekly increase offsetting the downturn in other Gulf countries. As a result, total Gulf region volumes returned to growth, rising by 8%. The UAE’s main destination markets were Africa (+36%), with a spike towards West Africa (+76%) – especially Nigeria, Chad and Senegal – and East Africa (+25%), notably Kenya (+83%). Intra-MESA flows, particularly those towards Saudi Arabia, also doubled (+107%) after the Eid-related slowdown. Despite this partial recovery, the biweekly comparison (weeks 23 and 24 versus the previous two) still shows a 13% drop for the MESA region, with declines of 14% towards Asia-Pacific and 11% towards Europe.
While the MESA region remains under pressure, Asia-Pacific emerged as the only global area to record an increase in volumes during week 24, with a 2% rise over the previous week. However, the two-week trend remains negative at -4%. Half of the weekly growth came from mainland China, which posted a 3% increase, largely driven by Shanghai (+5%) and supported by a simultaneous rise in cargo capacity. South Korea also reported strong performance, up 15% following its national holiday on 6 June. The primary destination for Asian exports in week 24 was the United States, with volumes from China increasing by 6% after a 10% drop the week before. The market remains highly volatile, influenced by recent shifts in US customs policies.
On the pricing front, the global average rate held steady at 2.41 dollars per kilo, with only minor week-on-week variations. However, the strongest downward pressure was observed in MESA (-4% WoW) and Asia-Pacific (-5% year-on-year), where current rates are well below 2024 levels. Spot rates followed a similar trend, with a global average of 2.59 dollars per kilo, marking a 2% year-on-year decline. Noteworthy were the sharp drops in spot rates from MESA (-22% year-on-year) and from Hong Kong (-6% in week 24, after a -12% in week 23), following the tightening of US rules on low-value shipments from China and Hong Kong, in force since 2 May. In contrast, spot rates rose year-on-year from North America (+5%), Africa (+4%) and Latin America (+2%).
