The Allianz Trade Global Survey 2025, published on 20 May, offers a first-hand account of the immediate impact of the trade war sparked on 2 April by the US announcement of new duties. The research involved companies from China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, consulted at two key points in time: first between 6 and 21 March, when tariffs were still only a possibility, and then between 21 April and 5 May, once the new duties were already in effect. The sample, which spans fifteen sectors and includes both small and medium-sized enterprises as well as large corporations with revenues exceeding five billion euros, was designed to measure the shift in business sentiment before and after the introduction of tariffs.
The results point to a dramatic turnaround in expectations. Before the duties were imposed, 80 per cent of exporters were planning to expand their international sales. Just weeks later, that share had dropped to 40 per cent. Four in ten businesses now expect a decline in revenue of between 2 and 10 per cent over the next year, a fear that had barely reached 5 per cent in the earlier survey. On a broader economic level, Allianz Trade estimates global export losses could reach 305 billion dollars in 2025 and a further 291 billion in 2026. China is expected to bear more than a third of these losses, while the European Union could see a reduction of up to 33 billion dollars.
This climate of uncertainty is also reflected in payment behaviours. Only 11 per cent of businesses continue to receive payment within 30 days, while around 70 per cent now wait between 30 and 70 days. In some markets, such as the United Kingdom, it has become standard for payments to be delayed beyond 70 days. Since 2 April, the share of companies expecting further delays in payment terms has risen sharply from 36 to 53 per cent, with Italy and Spain showing the most significant increases. Almost half of all respondents now fear a rise in insolvencies, a risk perceived as particularly acute by companies in the UK, the US and Italy.
To mitigate the impact of tariffs, many firms have turned to front-loading strategies, accelerating imports before the new duties came into force. In the US, 79 per cent of importers from China and Europe followed this approach. Globally, nearly four out of ten companies plan to pass on the higher costs entirely to their customers, and in the United States that figure exceeds 50 per cent.
The trend toward market diversification is gaining momentum. European exporters have increased their interest in Asia, with the share rising from 30 to 36 per cent, while interest from Asian companies in Europe has grown from 12 to 14 per cent. Chinese companies, in particular, have doubled their focus on Europe, reaching 22 per cent. Latin America is also emerging as a viable destination, attracting one in six Chinese firms—twice the previous share.
Investment decisions reflect these diverging geographies. In Germany, 45 per cent of firms are focusing on operational efficiency and cost reduction. In contrast, 77 per cent of Chinese companies are investing in diversification and the expansion of strategic capital. In the US, the proportion of businesses planning to increase investment has dropped to 47 per cent.
Almost 90 per cent of companies surveyed are either considering or have already begun to bring parts of their production or supply chains back to domestic markets. However, this reshoring process faces significant obstacles, including the lack of local suppliers, higher operating costs and labour shortages, as highlighted by more than 75 per cent of respondents.
On the US-China front, the recent 90-day truce has reduced the average US tariff on Chinese goods to 39 per cent. However, this is still three times higher than before the conflict began. American companies are expected to continue advancing their orders and rerouting shipments through lower-tariff hubs in Southeast Asia, the Gulf and Latin America. Although eight in ten US firms say they are planning to restructure their supply chains to reduce dependence on China, only 8 per cent foresee a significant reduction in their direct presence in the country, indicating that a complete decoupling remains unlikely.
The most negative sentiment is found among wholesalers, two-thirds of whom anticipate worsening business conditions, and among firms that derive more than half their revenue from exports. Larger companies, particularly those with revenues above five billion euros, are experiencing longer payment delays. The sectors most affected by these delays are transport, energy, metals, paper and agri-food, while ICT, retail and automotive continue to report average payment times below 50 days.
Six weeks into the tariff war, the Allianz Trade report makes clear that tariff uncertainty is not simply slowing global trade—it is actively redrawing its contours. Value chains are becoming shorter, regional hubs are proliferating, and friend-shoring is emerging as the dominant approach. Companies capable of responding with flexible supply chains, robust financial safeguards and agile pricing strategies may turn what appears to be a systemic threat into a long-term competitive advantage.
