As the peak season for container shipping in 2024 approaches, maritime companies appear optimistic. This is the main takeaway from a Sea-Intelligence report, which analyzes canceled sailings (blank sailings) and capacity, providing forecasts for the third quarter of the year. The analysis indicates that for weeks 29-39 (from July 15 to September 30), shipping lines have planned a relatively low percentage of canceled capacity on the two main East/West routes: Asia-North America's West Coast and Asia-Northern Europe.
For the Asia-Northern Europe route, the anticipated canceled capacity for the next eleven weeks stands at 5.9%, a figure only surpassed by 2020 and the pre-pandemic average, though the difference from 2020 is not significant. While no annual capacity growth is expected in 2024, in 2023, the annual capacity growth on this route reached 13.1%, a notable increase compared to historical benchmarks and excessive in relation to the route's demand levels, as evidenced by the decline in freight rates.
On the Asia-North America's West Coast route, carriers have so far planned to cancel only 3.9% of the total capacity, a figure close to the pre-pandemic and 2020 averages. However, this is significantly lower compared to the pandemic years when cancellations were driven by port congestion. For the same weeks in 2024, capacity growth is expected to increase by 24.6% compared to 2023 and by 10.2% compared to 2020, when a peak capacity in TEU terms was deployed.
