The container shipping spot market is experiencing a phase of marked polarisation. The latest update of the Drewry World Container Index, released on 23 April 2026, depicts a landscape in which macroeconomic dynamics and carriers’ operational choices are driving sharply divergent trends depending on the route. The composite index stands at $2,232 per 40ft container, down 1% week on week but up 3% year on year. This marks the second consecutive weekly decline, highlighting how structurally weak demand is absorbing and partly neutralising exogenous geopolitical shocks.
The most significant insight from the data is the disconnect between operating costs and spot rates. Tensions in the Middle East and transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept marine fuel costs high and forced the application of war risk surcharges. However, these additional costs are not enough to reverse the downward pressure on freight rates: carriers are paying more to operate, but are unable to pass these costs on to shippers due to weak global demand.
The transatlantic route is the exception in this scenario. Rotterdam-New York posted the strongest increase of the week, surging 15% to $2,326 per feu, up 10% year on year. Rates have been rising steadily since late March, but the driver is not a sudden increase in US demand for European goods. Instead, it reflects supply-side intervention: reduced deployed capacity and, above all, the introduction from 15 April of a $1,100 peak season surcharge per 40ft container. On the return leg, New York-Rotterdam rates remain stable at $1,031, with a 1% weekly increase and a 25% rise year on year.
The opposite trend is evident on Asia-Europe routes, where excess supply is eroding margins. Shanghai-Genoa recorded the steepest weekly decline, down 8% to $3,071 per feu. Shanghai-Rotterdam fell 4% to $2,147. According to Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight, the issue is strategic: carriers have scheduled only three blank sailings, meaning cancelled departures, for the following week on this corridor. This is far from sufficient to absorb excess capacity and support rates during a seasonal lull.
A comparison with the transpacific route underscores the impact of capacity management. Despite the same seasonal weakness affecting Europe, rates on China-US routes are rising. Shanghai-Los Angeles increased 4% to $2,934 per feu, up 12% year on year. The difference lies in systematic capacity control: alliances have scheduled nine blank sailings for the coming week. By physically removing capacity from the market, carriers have created scarcity, pushing shippers to accept higher rates.
Looking ahead to early May, Drewry analysts expect some stabilisation and reduced volatility in the short term. However, fundamentals remain fragile. Until global export volumes from China show signs of recovery, spot rates will continue to be shaped by individual carriers’ capacity management strategies: where sailings are reduced, as on US-bound routes, prices will hold; where vessels continue to sail with partially empty capacity, as on Europe-bound routes, rates will continue to decline.
Mara Gambetta
