As navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively subject to a dual blockade by Iran and the United States, Hapag-Lloyd estimates that even in a scenario of immediate stabilisation in the Middle East and the reopening of the strait, it would take at least six to eight weeks to restore its container shipping flows to normal conditions. The indication comes via Reuters from chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen and concerns not only the resumption of transits in the Gulf area, but the restoration of the company’s entire global operating setup, which in recent weeks has absorbed rerouting, delays and a sharp rise in costs.
The key point for the liner shipping market is that normalisation would not coincide with a potential ceasefire or an immediate reduction in geopolitical risk. The German carrier considers an additional period necessary to realign vessel rotations, reposition capacity, rebalance flows of full and empty containers and restore the regularity of sailings. In other words, reopening the corridor alone would not be enough to absorb the disruption accumulated across the network.
Hapag-Lloyd puts the impact of the crisis at 40–60 million dollars per week, equivalent to around 35–53 million euros, depending on the extent of diversions and operational constraints. However, this estimate may change over time, increasing if tensions in the Middle East persist. The main cost items include fuel, insurance premiums, container storage costs, longer sailing distances on alternative routes and increased pressure on ports used as substitute calls.
For logistics operators, the most relevant point is that the recovery period estimated by Hapag-Lloyd describes a complex process rather than a simple commercial reopening. In the initial phase, which could last from several days to about a week, sufficient political stabilisation would be needed to reduce the risk of attacks or seizures and make passage through the strait viable again. This phase would not bring an immediate return to full operations, but only a gradual resumption of bookings and a selective reactivation of services to the Upper Gulf.
In the following two to three weeks, recovery would still be partial. Carriers could reopen only some services, with booking limits and capacity still constrained by accumulated delays. Ships that have taken alternative routes would continue to generate misalignment in service cycles, with out-of-sequence arrivals and port windows needing to be resynchronised. At this stage, the network would remain unbalanced and transit time reliability would still be reduced.
The longest part of the recovery coincides with network rebalancing. This is where, according to Hapag-Lloyd, true normalisation takes place. Restoring regular service means realigning weekly departures, repositioning empty containers in areas that experienced shortages during the crisis, returning vessels to their original rotations and rebuilding schedule reliability in line with shippers’ requirements.
Hapag-Lloyd has clarified that part of the increased costs will have to be passed on to customers, and according to estimates reported by Reuters, surcharges and rate adjustments would remain in place for at least part of the recovery phase. This is a signal that goes beyond a single carrier, suggesting a widespread impact on freight rates, ancillary costs and delivery planning at a time when service reliability remains below standard levels.
In practical terms, this means that even in the presence of a credible truce, for one or two months the network could continue to show cancelled sailings, variable transit times, longer dwell times and additional costs. Companies exposed to Gulf trades, or indirectly affected by diversions on Asia–Europe routes, should therefore plan with larger safety stocks, greater flexibility in delivery terms and cost assessments that include elevated surcharges for several weeks.
Anna Maria Boidi
