Air freight transportation showed signs of recovery during the third week of January 2025, following the typical seasonal slump seen between the end of December and the start of the year. According to data published by WorldACD Market Data, global cargo volumes during the week of January 13–19 rose by 8% compared to the previous week, building on a rebound that had already seen a 29% increase in the second week of the year. However, spot rates continue to decline, reflecting the complexities of the market dynamics.
The January recovery is a critical period for the air freight sector, serving as a barometer for the industry's performance following the Christmas peak. This year, global demand has returned to approximately 90% of the levels seen during the last full week before Christmas. Compared to the same period in 2024, volumes in the third week of January increased by 3%, while global average rates stood at $2.43 per kilogram, around 7% higher than in 2024.
However, WorldACD Market Data highlights significant downward pressure on spot rates, which dropped by 3% during the third week compared to the previous one, although they remain 16% higher than last year. Among origin regions, the Middle East and South Asia saw notable growth, with spot rates rising by 54% year-on-year, followed by the Asia-Pacific region with a 20% increase.
The Asia-Pacific market continues to be a strategic area and a barometer for seasonal fluctuations. During the third week of January 2025, volumes from this region grew by 5%, reaching levels 5% higher than the same period in 2024. Nevertheless, these figures remain 10% below the peaks recorded in week 49 of the previous year.
Particularly critical is the Asia-Pacific to Europe route. Despite a partial recovery, volumes remain 20% lower than the peak levels observed in December, with China recording a 15% decline. This trend partly reflects the sharp increase in volumes at the end of 2024 and the impact of the Lunar New Year, which falls on January 29 this year, about two weeks earlier than in 2024.
In terms of spot rates, routes from Asia-Pacific to Europe experienced a 4% decline during the third week of January, with an average of $4.35 per kilogram. Although 15% below December levels, these rates remain 31% higher than last year. A similar trend is evident in routes to the United States, where spot rates have progressively dropped from $6.89 per kilogram in week 50 of 2024 to $5.21 in the third week of January, still showing an annual increase of 29%.
The year 2025 is shaping up to be a transitional one for air cargo transportation, characterised by an evolving competitive landscape and demand influenced by seasonal and macroeconomic factors. While the recovery signs observed in January are encouraging, the instability of rates and regional demand variations highlight the need for operators to closely monitor market dynamics. The role of Asia-Pacific routes, especially towards Europe and the United States, will remain pivotal as the industry adapts to the challenges posed by seasonality and growing global economic volatility.
