Xeneta observed a significant drop in air cargo spot rates in February 2025, with average tariffs between Shanghai and the United States falling by 29% from the previous month, reaching $3.23 per kilogram. According to the research firm, this decline may be among the first indicators of how political tensions and new regulatory measures are affecting the international e-commerce sector. Indeed, e-commerce has been a key driver of the substantial growth in air freight over recent years, particularly from Asian regions to the United States and Europe.
However, recent political and regulatory developments are reshaping this trend. Notably, the US administration has imposed a new 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and aims to remove the "de minimis" exemption, which currently allows duty-free entry of packages valued below $800. Although implementation of this measure is temporarily suspended due to operational challenges, it has already had a significant impact on Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Shein and Temu, whose business models heavily rely on direct shipment of small packages to US consumers.
According to Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, the drop in spot rates from Shanghai to the US might indicate a decrease in e-commerce volumes, releasing capacity that had previously been fully utilised. This development could redirect traffic towards more traditional markets like Hong Kong and southern China, making Shanghai the first market to experience the effects of this shift. Notably, although global air cargo demand grew by 4% year-on-year at the start of 2025, this represents a slowdown compared to the double-digit monthly growth consistently recorded throughout 2024.
While the Shanghai-US route experienced a significant decline in rates, tariffs on the Shanghai-Europe route decreased by a more modest 2% month-on-month, settling at $3.86 per kilogram. This suggests that trade tensions between the US and China are impacting transpacific routes more noticeably than those towards Europe. Forecasts for 2025 originally predicted global air cargo market growth of between 4% and 6%; however, escalating trade tensions are casting doubt on these expectations, especially given the critical role e-commerce plays as a growth engine for the industry.
Current uncertainties are influencing the strategies of air freight operators. Airlines are reconsidering their capacity strategies, contemplating shifts to routes towards southeast Asia or repositioning capacity onto the transatlantic market. Freight forwarders are delaying negotiations on blocked space agreements (BSA) with airlines until there is greater clarity on demand and pricing. Similarly, some forwarders are postponing annual contract negotiations, opting instead for short-term agreements during the first half of the year.
