Drought is again taking a toll in the summer of 2026. At Kaub, on the Middle Rhine, the water level fell on Monday, 13 July 2026 to 53 centimetres, the lowest level recorded on the river in July for decades. It is a threshold that weighs on Germany’s entire inland waterway transport system: below 80 centimetres, barge operators start cutting loads and raising rates, and some operators report vessels travelling with barely one fifth of their usual capacity. The situation is being compounded by severe instability on Germany’s rail network, with delays, cancellations and scheduled closures adding to the problems on the river and leaving shippers of bulk cargoes - coal, iron ore, chemicals and fuels - with almost no modal room for manoeuvre.
Kaub remains the main bottleneck, but low water is affecting the entire stretch south of Duisburg and Cologne. In Duisburg, tanker barges can still load about 1,200 metric tonnes, while at Kaub the limit falls to around 460 tonnes, a fraction of the vessels’ full capacity. On the rail side, the main problems are concentrated above all on the corridors linking the ports of Hamburg and Bremerhaven with the hinterland, as well as on the German and Austrian networks more broadly. From 15 July, the closure of the main Frankfurt-Mannheim line will add further pressure, with the route shut for five months for a €1.3bn modernisation programme that will directly affect freight traffic to the south of the country.
The first warning signs emerged in late June: on 22 June, the level at Kaub stood at around 106 centimetres, already down from a peak of 140 cm at the end of May. The Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (German Federal Institute of Hydrology, BfG) had estimated an 85% probability that levels would fall below 97 centimetres by 30 June, a forecast later confirmed by events. The crisis deepened in the week of 13 July, when a heatwave added to prolonged drought across the river’s catchment areas. Rail disruption has also been reported since early July: Maersk sent an advisory to customers on 8 and 9 July, while Germany’s steel industry had already reported similar problems in the first ten days of June.
Barge operators are applying surcharges to compensate for partial loads and are splitting consignments across several vessels. The impact on costs is significant: the transport of diesel from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe has risen from about €45 per tonne at the end of June to €60-70 per tonne in mid-July, almost 50% higher, according to brokers monitoring inland waterway markets. If the level at Kaub falls below 40 centimetres, commercial navigation could be suspended entirely.
On the rail side, Maersk attributes the disruption to traffic control operations imposed by the port authorities of Hamburg and Bremerhaven, combined with multiple infrastructure works announced at short notice, which are reducing network capacity and flexibility. Deutsche Bahn aims to cut disruptions by 80% through a renewal plan covering 40 rail corridors, but in the short term traffic diverted onto other lines is causing delays and reducing the volumes that can be carried.
The combination of two transport modes under pressure at the same time is depriving bulk cargo shippers of their usual modal safety valves, adding to existing pressures on a German economy undergoing a fragile recovery. Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl (German Steel Federation, WV Stahl) has described the difficulties in rail transport of iron ore and coal as "extremely critical", with impacts already visible on production at some plants. Weather forecasts offer little immediate relief: much will depend on rainfall expected in the coming days, and if it fails to arrive in the right areas, river levels could set further negative records.
Antonio Illariuzzi
