In August 2025, global air cargo traffic measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK) rose by 4.1% year on year, confirming the sector’s resilience in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. According to Iata’s monthly figures, the gain was weaker than July’s 5.5% but extended the growth streak to six consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted CTK rose 3.9% year on year, down from 5% in July, while the year-to-date cumulative figure improved from 3.1% to 3.3%. On the supply side, global capacity (ACTK) increased 3.7% and the cargo load factor (CLF) edged up by 0.2 points to 44.2%.
Regional trends highlighted sharp contrasts. Africa was the fastest-growing region, up 11% year on year, the only double-digit increase and an acceleration from July. Asia Pacific expanded by 9.8%, still solid but slower than July’s 11.2%. Europe grew 3.2%, the third-best result of the year despite a slight deceleration. The Middle East accelerated to 2.7%, while Latin America and the Caribbean fell to 2.1%, marking their weakest August since 2020. North America moved back into contraction at −2.1%, reversing the modest rebound seen in July.
International routes confirmed robust demand, with most major corridors growing by at least 7% compared with August 2024. Europe–Asia rose 13% and intra-Asia 12.4%, both supported by the redirection of Asian flows away from North America following new US tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption. Africa–Middle East jumped 15.6%, reaching record volumes since March 2025, while Africa–Asia climbed 8.4%, likely benefiting from similar shifts. Europe–North America rose 7.8%, as did Middle East–Asia, reaching record highs. By contrast, Asia–North America fell 2.2% and Middle East–Europe slipped 0.8%, with the former – which in 2024 accounted for nearly a quarter of global demand – hit by tariff escalation.
Capacity composition continued to shift towards passenger belly space. International belly capacity rose 7.8% year on year and accounted for 56.6% of total capacity, marking the 53rd consecutive month of growth. Dedicated freighter supply grew 2.6%, but their share slipped to 43.4%, while overall ACTK rose 3.7%. A reallocation of freighters was also evident, with capacity cut on North America–Asia routes due to trade frictions and redirected towards intra-Europe (+17.9%), Europe–North America (+10.1%) and intra-Asia (+10.3%).
On the load factor front, Asia Pacific was the only region with a year-on-year increase, up 1.3 points to 47.5%. All others declined: Latin America and the Caribbean dropped one point to 35.1%, Europe fell 0.5 points to 49.2%, Africa slipped 0.5 points to 39.6%, the Middle East lost 0.7 points to 44.1%, and North America edged down 0.4 points to 38.4%. The modest rise in the global load factor thus reflected demand resilience more than supply growth.
Fuel costs offered partial relief to carriers, with prices down 6.4% year on year in August, the 14th consecutive decline, though the cracking spread surged 52% to $19.3 (around €18). Cargo yields remained under annual pressure (−2%), recording the fourth decline of 2025, but rose 0.5% compared with July and were up 1.1% year to date, signalling underlying demand stability and more disciplined capacity on sensitive routes.
At macroeconomic level, August PMI indicators were mixed: Manufacturing output PMI rose to 51.75, its highest since June 2024 and back in expansionary territory, while New Export Orders PMI stayed below 50 at 48.73, pointing to continued caution on exports amid tariff uncertainty. In July, global industrial production rose 2.8% year on year on a seasonally adjusted basis, though with fading momentum, while world goods trade accelerated to 5.4% from 3.8% in June, giving cyclical support to air cargo demand.
According to Iata, these dynamics outline a market that remains resilient but exposed to external factors. The reallocation of capacity and flows in response to US tariffs and the end of the de minimis exemption is reshaping major corridors, benefiting intra-Asia, Europe–Asia and Africa–Middle East, while constraining Asia–North America. Softer fuel prices and disciplined freighter capacity are helping to stabilise yields in the short term, but demand trends will hinge on the evolution of trade conditions and export order momentum.
