The latest and grave military escalation between Israel and Iran, marked by a series of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory during the night of 12 to 13 June 2025, may spark a chain of events that are difficult to control and likely to have repercussions far beyond the borders of the Middle East. For Europe, the consequences could be particularly severe. At the heart of the concern lies the stability of energy and strategic raw material supplies, particularly aluminium, a resource fundamental to the entire industrial sector across the continent.
The alarm has been raised by Mario Conserva, Secretary General of Face – the European Aluminium Consumers Federation – who, in a statement issued on 13 June, openly spoke of existential risks for European industry. According to Conserva, one of the most critical scenarios that cannot be ruled out is a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime passages for oil, gas and goods. Any disruption in that vital area, caused by armed conflict or geopolitical incidents, could cut Europe off from essential supply flows.
In the current context, already marked by structural weaknesses and economic tensions, a shock of this nature would dramatically worsen the ongoing crisis, generating panic on the markets, halting production, causing significant economic losses and creating an unstable social and political climate. Aluminium, in particular, finds itself at the centre of a perfect storm. The European Union currently faces a structural deficit in primary aluminium that exceeds 87 per cent of its domestic demand. To sustain its production chains, it requires around seven million tonnes of raw aluminium per year, a volume that Europe cannot secure on its own.
This dependency is further compounded by another destabilising factor: the growing export of aluminium scrap to the United States, where these materials are currently exempt from the 50 per cent tariffs introduced during the Trump administration. This trade imbalance threatens to seriously weaken Europe’s recycling system, undermining circular economy policies and simultaneously increasing reliance on foreign raw materials. The risk is twofold: on one hand, the demand for primary aluminium will continue to grow, as it is indispensable in numerous industrial applications, even when used alongside recycled metal; on the other hand, commercial distortions are encouraging the export of scrap, depriving Europe of valuable resources for its own production cycle.
As Conserva emphasises, Face has been calling for over two years on European institutions to pay close attention to the risks associated with restrictions on primary aluminium flows, the vulnerabilities of southern maritime routes and the emerging geopolitical instabilities. Today, more than ever, the Federation argues that the European Union must keep all strategic options open to safeguard its economic and industrial security. Aluminium, a key raw material for numerous sectors – from transport to energy, from construction to defence – is a resource on which the continent’s productive future may be built or lost.
