The year 2024 ended with seventeen straight months of growth for air cargo transport, and 2025 has begun following the same trend. In January, total demand, measured in tonne-kilometres, rose by 3.2% compared to January 2024, while capacity, expressed in available tonne-kilometres, grew by 6.8% over the same period. These figures were released by Iata on 27 February. According to its director general, Willie Walsh, the positive trend in air cargo is supported by the growth of global trade and a reduction in fuel costs. However, a 9.9% decline in yields compared to December 2024 and a 1.5% decrease in the average load factor suggest a potential slowdown. One source of uncertainty lies in the tariff policies of the US administration led by Donald Trump, which could alter the balance of the global logistics sector.
Air cargo performance in January varied across different regions. The Asia-Pacific region recorded a 7.5% increase in demand and a 10.9% rise in capacity, while North America saw demand grow by 5.3% and capacity by 7.5%. Growth in Europe was more moderate, with a 1.3% increase in demand and a 3.5% rise in capacity. Latin America recorded the highest percentage increase, with demand up by 11.2% and capacity by 10.6%, whereas the Middle East experienced an 8.4% decline in demand and a 1.2% drop in capacity. Africa also registered a 3.4% decrease in demand, despite a 5.4% increase in capacity.
The expansion of e-commerce in the United States and Europe is driving demand for air freight transport on several international routes. Connections between North America and Europe saw a 9.7% increase for twelve consecutive months, while the Asia-North America route grew by 6.1% over fifteen months. Traffic between Europe and Asia rose by 3.2%, continuing a positive trend that has lasted for twenty-three months, while the intra-Asian market recorded a 7.6% increase. Conversely, some routes experienced significant declines, such as the Africa-Asia route, which contracted by 26.1%, and the Middle East-Europe route, which saw a 7.3% drop.
Although air cargo growth remains solid, Iata advises industry operators to closely monitor economic and geopolitical variables that could impact 2025. The expansion of e-commerce and improvements in industrial production remain key factors for air freight transport. However, the risk of new customs duties and fluctuations in global demand could pose significant challenges in the coming months.
