Released on March 8, 2024, the Goods Trade Barometer by the World Trade Organization marked an index of 100.6, slightly above the baseline value of 100 and the quarterly trade averages. This figure suggests a gradual rebound in goods trade during the early months of 2024, though any advancement could be easily undermined by regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a leading composite indicator for global trade, offering real-time insights into the trajectory of goods trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values above 100 indicate trade volumes higher than the trend, whereas values below this figure suggest that goods trade has decreased compared to the trend or will do so shortly.
Global goods trade volume decreased by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter and saw a 2.5% decline from the same period in 2022. The significant year-over-year drop in the third quarter was mainly due to the relatively robust growth in the first three quarters of 2022. Goods trade from January to October 2023 remained mostly stable, with volume in the third quarter nearly unchanged since the beginning of the year and up only 3.2% over two years. These developments are more negative than the WTO's last forecast on October 5, 2023, which had anticipated a 0.8% growth in goods trade for 2023.
Components of the barometer are mostly neutral, with export orders (101.7) and air transport (102.3) indicators slightly above trend, while container shipping (98.6) and raw materials trade (99.1) indicators remain slightly below trend. The automotive production and sales index (106.3) stays well above the trend, though it has recently lost momentum. Meanwhile, a previously reported strong rebound in electronic components trade in the last barometer has been corrected (95.6). Goods trade is expected to recover in 2024, bouncing back from below-average growth in 2023, but uncertainty remains high due to prevalent downside risks.
