The container shipping market is digesting the Red Sea crisis, and as of February 22, 2024, spot freight rates are down on almost all routes, save for the Rotterdam to New York leg. This is indicated by the Drewry Container Index, which overall shows a 2% decrease in the composite index, settling at $3,659 per 40-foot container. Analysts remind that this change is part of a context of significant annual growth, with a 93% increase compared to the same week last year. This figure reflects the continuous fluctuations in the maritime transport sector, influenced by global economic factors, trade policies, and supply and demand dynamics.
Over a longer time horizon, compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, the current composite index of Drewry shows a 158% increase, with average transport rates rising from $1,420 to $3,659 per 40-foot container. This increase underscores the profound transformations the sector has undergone over the past years, exacerbated by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Looking at aggregated data since the beginning of the year, the average composite index stands at $3,561 per 40-foot container, marking an increase of $869 compared to the ten-year average of $2,692. It's important to note that this ten-year average had already been influenced by the exceptional period of 2020-2022, characterized by explosive demand and operational restrictions related to the pandemic.
Focusing on the most recent week, transport rates from Rotterdam to Shanghai saw a 5% decrease, settling at $910 per container, while those from Shanghai to Genoa and New York recorded declines of 3%, standing at $5,042 and $5,976 per feu, respectively. The downward trend is also evident in rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam, with a 2% decrease, reaching $4,221 per 40-foot container.
In the transpacific routes, freight rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles experienced a slight decrease of 1%, standing at $4,683 per feu, while those from Los Angeles to Shanghai and from New York to Rotterdam remained stable. Bucking the trend, rates from Rotterdam to New York saw a 1% increase, reaching $2,204 per 40-foot container. In this volatile scenario, Drewry anticipates that maritime transport rates will remain stable over the next week. This forecast suggests a period of adjustment in the market, following the turbulent movements of recent months.
