The global air freight market is set for double-digit volume growth in 2024, following a 12% year-on-year demand increase in May, according to Xeneta's forecasts. This growth had already been anticipated at the end of 2023, initially projected at single-digit figures, but expectations were revised upwards after six consecutive months of "quite extraordinary" regional demand. In May, freight rates also increased: the global average rate rose by 9% year-on-year, reaching $2.58 per kilo.
"When it comes to growth, analysts sometimes say that once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a pattern," said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta. "In the world of air cargo, an undeniable pattern is emerging, and we can no longer use the word 'surprising'. When we take a medium-term view of the market, with these numbers, we might be on the path to double-digit growth for the year. It is now a possible scenario."
In 2024, the market has well absorbed a 5% increase in summer belly capacity. Regarding freight rates, the largest percentage increase in May was seen on routes between the Middle East-Central Asia and Europe, reaching $3.21 per kilo (+110% year-on-year). This is due to the ongoing Red Sea crisis, which is diverting traffic from sea to air and expediting shipments. Spot rates from Southeast Asia and China to North America rose by 65% and 43%, respectively, reaching $4.64 and $4.88 per kilo, while the China-Europe spot rate saw a double-digit increase, up 34% year-on-year to $4.14 per kilo. This was despite a relatively stable load factor on a monthly basis.
Conversely, a negative trend emerged on the Europe to North America route: -21%, reaching $1.77 per kilo year-on-year. In the opposite direction, the decline was 16%, at $1.08 per kilo. Spot rates from North America and Europe to China also fell, by 32% and 23% respectively, to $1.61 and $1.65 per kilo. These declines could be attributed to increased belly capacity due to the rise in summer flights.
