Air cargo is gaining ground globally, marking a sharp recovery in the twentieth week of the year (12–18 May 2025), with a 6% increase in volumes compared to the previous week. The main driver behind this rebound has been the surge in shipments from Asia-Pacific, fuelled by a resurgence in demand following holidays in Japan and South Korea, and by the easing of trade policies between the United States and China. This is according to the weekly update published on 23 May by WorldACD Market Data.
The data shows that around two-thirds of the global growth during the twentieth week can be attributed to the rise in shipments from China and Hong Kong (up 8%), Japan (up 60%), and South Korea (up 21%). These spikes reflect the end of Japan’s Golden Week (29 April–6 May) and Children’s Day in Korea (5 May), which had caused a temporary drop in volumes. Overall, air exports from the Asia-Pacific macro-region rose by 11% on a weekly basis. Other regions also posted positive signs: the Middle East and South Asia (Mesa) recorded an 11% increase, while Europe grew by 6%.
A key factor in the traffic recovery has been the recent – albeit temporary – easing of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. Following the elimination on 2 May of the de minimis exemption for low-value goods and the simultaneous tightening of US tariffs on products from China, the sector experienced a sharp downturn, with numerous suspensions of transpacific cargo flights. However, a provisional agreement reached on 12 May, which includes the cancellation of some tariffs, a 90-day suspension of others, and a partial softening of de minimis regulations, had an immediate effect: in the twentieth week, volumes between China/Hong Kong and the United States rose by 19% over the previous week.
The mid-May data thus brings traffic back to levels similar to those seen in early April, after two weeks of notable decline, and also returns it close to the peaks recorded at the end of February and in March, when there had been a rush to ship goods ahead of the tariff hike. Spot rates on this route have stabilised around four dollars per kilogram over the past two weeks, after a surge in the second half of April, particularly from Hong Kong.
At the same time, exports from China and Hong Kong to Europe have also followed an upward trend: China alone saw a 9% rise in week 20, with combined volumes returning to the highest levels of 2025, nearing peak season levels recorded in November and December 2024. However, rates have shown mixed signals: while those from China to Europe fell by 5% (3.71 dollars/kg), those from Hong Kong edged up slightly by 2% (4.39 dollars/kg), although still among the lowest of the year.
Globally, growth was partly offset by a decrease in loads from Central and South America (down 4%), mainly due to falling flower demand following Mother’s Day (celebrated on 11 May in many countries). Marginal declines were also seen from North American (down 2%) and African origins (down 1%).
On a fortnightly basis, volumes from Latin America dropped by 23% compared to the previous two weeks, though they remain 3% higher than during the same period in 2024. Conversely, almost all other regions showed year-on-year volume growth, with the exception of Mesa (down 2%) and North America (stable).
The global average air freight rate in the twentieth week stood at 2.33 dollars/kg, a modest 2% increase on the previous week, thanks largely to the Asia-Pacific region. However, this is still 4% below the same period in 2024. A similar trend applies to spot rates, which averaged 2.50 dollars/kg (up 2% weekly), yet remain 3% below last year’s levels. The steepest drop is seen in the Mesa region, with spot rates down 23% and general averages down 15% compared to May 2024, when prices were still inflated by exceptional conditions.
