On 15 April 2025, Fedespedi published the 24th edition of its Economic Outlook, the annual report on international freight transport for the year 2024. The report opens with a broad overview of the economy, noting that Italy’s GDP grew by 0.7% at constant prices compared to the previous year, and inflation fell below 2%. The trade balance also brought positive news, returning to a surplus of €54.9 billion, thanks in part to falling energy prices. However, exports declined by 0.4%, mainly due to ongoing crises in key destination markets for Italian goods, notably Germany, which saw a 4.2% drop, and China, where imports from Italy fell by 17.4%. Sharp declines were also recorded in neighbouring markets, such as Switzerland (-8.0%) and Austria (-11.9%).
Fedespedi’s president, Alessandro Pitto, commented that “we are witnessing a constantly evolving economic landscape driven by various geopolitical factors. We are watching developments with the United States closely, which in 2024 became Italy’s second-largest export market, with a value of €64.7 billion, overtaking France (€62.3 billion) and now trailing only Germany (€70 billion). Yet there is an urgent need to consider strategic reflections on new trade flows and alliances, particularly with a view towards the North African market and tools such as the CETA agreement with Canada, which is already yielding tangible benefits. At a national level, we must support logistics and trade by improving the efficiency of infrastructure across all logistics sectors and reducing bureaucratic barriers.”
In terms of transport, Fedespedi’s report shows that global logistics experienced a clear rebound in 2024 after years of uncertainty and slowdown. International container traffic exceeded 183 million TEUs, a 6.2% increase over the previous year. This growth was primarily driven by a surge in exports from the Far East (+11.4%) and imports into North America (+12.1%), while intra-European trade posted a robust +7.9%. Italy also benefited from this recovery: in 2024, national ports handled around 11.9 million TEUs. Genoa remained the country’s leading gateway port with 2.45 million TEUs (+2.2%), followed by La Spezia, which posted a strong 8.7% increase.
Shipping lines saw their financial performance mirror this traffic boost. Companies such as Maersk, CMA CGM, and OOCL once again achieved double-digit profit margins in 2024, at 21.9%, 24.2%, and an impressive 33%, respectively. This performance was aided by falling fuel prices, with Brent crude dropping from $91 per barrel in April 2024 to around $69 a year later, enabling significant cuts in operating costs for both maritime fleets and road transport.
Nonetheless, the report highlights several critical issues in container shipping. Only 53% of vessels met their scheduled arrival times in 2024, down from 62% the year before, while average delays rose to 5.4 days. Moreover, the threat of new US tariffs has already led to some booking cancellations on the Asia–US route, prompting analysts to revise global maritime trade growth forecasts for 2025 downward by 1.1%.
In road transport, industrial vehicle traffic on the Italian motorway network rose by 3.6% in the first five months of 2024, indicating still-strong domestic demand. However, Alpine infrastructure continues to be a major bottleneck for international freight. In 2024, truck crossings at key Alpine passes fell to 4.7 million vehicles, a 1.2% drop caused mainly by the prolonged closure of the Mont Blanc tunnel and works in the Gotthard tunnel. This resulting congestion led to a shift in freight transport towards road haulage, further penalising rail networks and creating increasing operational difficulties for Italian logistics operators.
Air cargo in Italy enjoyed a strong year in 2024, with overall growth of 15%, bringing total volumes to 1.25 million tonnes. Milan Malpensa remained the leading hub, handling 731,641 tonnes, an increase of 8.9%, but the standout performer was Rome Fiumicino, which soared by 43% to reach 271,580 tonnes. Bologna (+20.8%) and Venice (+19.8%) also contributed to the national surge. Italy rose to fourth place in Europe for overall airport connectivity, underlining its growing importance within European air transport networks. However, the first two months of 2025 show a general slowdown of 3.5%, with notable drops at Malpensa (-2.7%) and Fiumicino (-3%).
Internationally, decisions by the second Trump administration to reintroduce broad tariffs—currently suspended—pose a serious threat to Italian exports. Fedespedi has criticised the US methodology, which assumes average tariffs of around 20%, while in reality, actual duties on major Italian exports to the US average between 4% and 5%. Nevertheless, Italy remains particularly vulnerable to such measures, as the US was its second-largest export market in 2024, with goods worth €64.8 billion, mainly in machinery, pharmaceuticals, food, and automotive sectors.
Italy’s large trade surplus with the US—around $44 billion—makes its production a prime target for American protectionist policies. Potential effects of these tariffs include a contraction in bilateral trade volumes, price increases for American consumers, especially in food and luxury sectors, and further pressure on currency markets. During Trump’s first presidency, the US dollar appreciated significantly, though this failed to reduce the American trade deficit.
