After a strong start to Q4 2024, the air cargo market appears to have reached its peak, with volumes and rates declining during the second week of December. According to the latest analysis by WorldAcd Market Data, this downturn also affects the Asia-Pacific region, traditionally a key driver of the sector. During the 50th week of 2024 (9–15 December), average spot rates from Asia-Pacific origins fell by 4% compared to the previous week, settling at $4.57 per kilogram.
This decline was partially offset by increases in spot rates from North America (+6%) and the Middle East and South Asia (MESA, +5%). However, on a global scale, spot rates dropped by 1% week-on-week, although they remain 16% higher than the same period in 2023, with a global average of $3.20 per kilogram. Contract rates globally followed a similar trend, dipping 1% week-on-week to $2.61 per kilogram. Overall, the global average air cargo price fell to $2.78 per kilogram but remains 6% higher than a year ago.
Global air freight capacity remained stable during the 50th week, with a 1% decrease in pure freighter capacity offset by a 1% increase in bellyhold capacity. However, global cargo volumes fell by 1% week-on-week, driven by a 2% drop from Asia-Pacific markets and a 7% decrease from MESA origins. In contrast, Africa (+4%) and Central and South America (+2%) recorded volume increases, buoyed by seasonal growth in perishable shipments to the Northern Hemisphere, such as exports from Egypt to Europe.
Focusing on the performance of major Asia-Pacific routes during the 50th week, spot rates to the United States saw a slight weekly increase, reaching $6.94 per kilogram ($6.98 for China alone). Compared to 2023, rates to the US rose by 4%, despite a 7% decline for shipments from China. On the volume front, shipments from Asia-Pacific to the US fell by 5% week-on-week, with a 4% drop from China to the US. However, year-on-year, tonnage increased by 5% from Asia-Pacific and 1% from China.
On routes to Europe, all major Asia-Pacific origins reported significant weekly volume declines, including Vietnam (-10%), Thailand (-9%), Hong Kong (-8%), China and Japan (-6%), and South Korea (-4%). Nonetheless, year-on-year volumes remain significantly higher, with increases of 26% from Japan, 23% from China, 19% from Vietnam, and 15% from Hong Kong. Spot rates to Europe followed a similar trend, with weekly declines from Taiwan (-11%), Japan (-7%), and China (-5%). An exception was Hong Kong, where rates remained stable near 2024 annual highs at $6.21 per kilogram. Year-on-year, rates to Europe are significantly higher, with increases of 63% from Thailand, 40% from Taiwan, 28% from Vietnam, 25% from Japan, and 13% from China.
The air cargo market is in a transitional phase, with signs of a slowdown following the traditional Q4 peak. While weekly variations in rates and volumes are negative, year-on-year comparisons continue to reflect robust growth. The stability of global capacity and fluctuating demand will continue to shape the industry during the final weeks of 2024, presenting complex and dynamic market scenarios.
