The quarterly surveys on the performance of European road haulage, jointly conducted by IRU, Transport Intelligence, and Upply, reveal that after a phase of decline, contract and spot rates showed growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a more pronounced rise in contract rates. However, escalating operational costs and a persistent shortage of drivers continue to pose significant challenges for hauliers.
Contract rates saw a quarterly increase of 2.8 points, reaching 128.9 points on the index. Despite this rise, an annual decline of 1.4% indicates a still fragile recovery. Spot rates, on the other hand, rose marginally by 0.5 points, settling at 123.9 points. On an annual basis, these rates also experienced a slight decrease of one point. The gap between contract and spot rates remains stable, with contract rates continuing to grow at a faster pace. This reflects the market's preference for long-term agreements that offer greater stability in an still uncertain economic environment.
Despite an 11.7% reduction in diesel prices, overall operational costs have increased, driven by rising driver wages and a growing labour shortage. In the EU27, labour costs rose by 5% year-on-year, with driver salaries representing the fastest-growing expense. Currently, there are around 500,000 vacancies in the sector, equivalent to 12% of total positions, a situation that limits available capacity and pushes rates higher. Capacity is further constrained by a decline in new heavy vehicle registrations, which fell by 29% in the EU in the third quarter of 2024. Diesel vehicles still account for 95.3% of registrations, despite a 7.3% year-on-year decline, while electric trucks maintain a market share of 2.2%.
According to the research, the future of road transport in Europe will be heavily influenced by environmental regulations and nearshoring strategies. The implementation of the Eurovignette Directive and the integration of road transport into the ETS II system from 2027 will raise operational costs, pushing companies to invest in zero-emission vehicles. Simultaneously, the trend towards nearshoring—relocating production to closer countries such as Poland, Romania, and Turkey—will alter transport demand on specific European routes. This strategy aims to reduce risks in global supply chains and could positively impact transport volumes on these routes.
According to the Energy Information Agency, crude oil prices will see a modest increase at the start of 2025, with Brent expected to reach $76 per barrel in the first quarter. However, stabilisation is anticipated in the second half of the year, with Brent projected to drop to $72 per barrel by December 2025. It appears that road freight transport in Europe is undergoing a transitional phase. While the recovery in contract rates suggests a degree of stability, rising operational costs and challenges related to environmental sustainability raise questions about the future.
