The European road freight sector is feeling the effects of ongoing political and economic instability, and during the first quarter of 2025, transport rates declined due to weakening demand. This is the picture that emerges from the European Benchmark Rates Index, developed by IRU, Transport Intelligence and Upply, which reveals a drop in both spot and contract rates. The backdrop includes stagnant consumer spending, reduced exports in several countries, and rising operating costs such as fuel, tolls and driver wages.
The contract rates index stood at 131.1 points in the quarter, down 2.3 points compared to the previous quarter and 5% lower than the peak recorded in the third quarter of 2022. The spot rates index came in at 134.1 points, down 3.8 points quarter-on-quarter. The gap between the two markets narrowed to three points, reflecting a sharper decline in spot rates.
On the cost side, the situation appears to be stabilising, though costs remain high. Driver wages dipped slightly compared to the previous quarter (down 2.0%), but are still 13.8% higher year-on-year. Diesel prices rose by 4.8% during the quarter, although they remain lower than in the same period of 2024. Maintenance, tolls and tyre costs all registered moderate increases. In Italy, for example, toll charges rose by 1.8%, while in Bulgaria the increase reached 20%. A notable development is the introduction of environmental toll components based on CO2 emissions in the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Sweden. France is also preparing to introduce the Ecotaxe in Alsace, scheduled to come into force by 2027.
A critical issue for the entire sector remains the shortage of drivers. In 2024, the number of unfilled driving positions across Europe reached 426,000, nearly double the previous year. In response, European institutions are working to lower the minimum age for entry into the profession to 18 and to facilitate recruitment from third countries. On the supply side, registrations of new heavy goods vehicles rose by 16.3% compared to the previous quarter, although they remain down year-on-year. Noteworthy is the 51% increase in battery-electric truck registrations.
Looking at individual road routes, the picture is mixed. The Madrid–Paris corridor is among the few to show growth, with contract rates up by 2.5 points and spot rates by 4.8. In contrast, the Warsaw–Duisburg route saw its first drop in contract rates after six consecutive quarters of growth, though it remains up on a yearly basis. The Milan–Warsaw and Lyon–Birmingham routes were stable or slightly down. Regarding the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp, the report highlights a widening gap between spot and contract import rates, favouring the former. For exports, contract rates remain higher but are declining, suggesting an ongoing rebalancing.
In national markets, Italy shows a divergent trend: spot rates were stable month-on-month (down 0.5 points) but posted strong annual growth (up 7.1%), while contract rates show a downward trend. In Spain, both indicators are on the rise, supported by strong domestic demand and EU funding. Germany saw the sharpest fall in spot rates (down 14.8 points in March), reflecting continued weakness in demand.
The outlook for the coming quarters is complex but not without positive elements. On the one hand, consumer spending is expected to strengthen, supported by increased purchasing power, lower inflation rates and accumulated savings. On the other, geopolitical and trade-related risks remain, which could hold back recovery, particularly in the export sector. Spot rates may begin to rise again in the medium term, driven by stronger demand and improving economic conditions, especially in Germany and the UK. However, pressure on contract rates is likely to persist, at least until there is a full rebound in industrial demand.
