The 90-day suspension of commercial hostilities and mutual tariff reductions, agreed upon by the United States and China on 12 May 2025, could have significant repercussions for air cargo, a sector severely impacted by the reciprocal duties imposed in the previous weeks. The cut in US tariffs from 145% to 30% and in Chinese tariffs from 125% to 10% holds the promise of partially revitalising trade flows that had experienced a dramatic slowdown. However, the exclusion of the de minimis rule — the exemption from duties for shipments valued up to $800 — from the agreement continues to pose a major challenge for cross-border e-commerce, which constitutes a substantial share of air cargo traffic between the two countries.
The imposition of punitive tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption triggered an immediate collapse in air freight between China and the United States. Data from Chinese monitoring platform Flytech shows that cargo flights between the two nations dropped sharply: from an average of nearly 66 daily flights in April 2025 to 46 on 1 May, 32 on 2 May, and just 28 on 7 May, marking a halving of capacity in just one week.
This contraction has also been reflected in the operations of Chinese airports, with many reporting mass cancellations of cargo flights bound for the US. A spokesperson from the Zhejiang Airport Group told Chinese outlet World Journal that “in recent days, nearly all cargo flights to the US have been cancelled”, with rates falling to around 20 yuan per kilogram and only three cargo flights scheduled during the first eight days of May. The impact has been particularly severe due to Chinese air freight’s heavy reliance on cross-border e-commerce, which accounts for around 60–70% of total air cargo volume.
The collapse in US-China air traffic has also affected other Asian routes that served as transit hubs. According to figures gathered by the World Journal, cargo traffic between China and Japan and between China and South Korea has also slowed considerably, with daily flights dropping from April averages of 65.43 and 59.23 to 39.43 and 36.57 respectively in the first week of May. Before the disruption, air freight rates had surged by up to 68% for spot shipments on the China-US route, a spike attributed both to the new tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption.
The tariff truce announced on 12 May offers significant relief to the air freight sector, though it does not fully resolve the structural issues that emerged in the preceding weeks. The reduction of US tariffs from 145% to 30% is a substantial improvement for operators, even if it maintains a noteworthy degree of pressure.
One immediate positive effect of the commercial détente has been China’s decision to lift its month-long ban on the reception of Boeing aircraft, which will allow for greater cargo capacity on international routes and improve operational efficiency for airlines. Chinese authorities have begun informing domestic airlines and government agencies that they may resume receiving American-made aircraft, with flexibility in arranging deliveries according to their own schedules and conditions. In parallel, China Airlines has placed an order with Boeing for four B777-8F aircraft.
Industry players are already adopting a range of strategies to navigate this new phase of the trade confrontation. Many US importers are accelerating their orders to take advantage of the 90-day window of reduced tariffs, while others are opting for a more cautious approach in hopes of further reductions. Nevertheless, logistics experts warn that the ongoing shifts in tariff policy are putting global transport companies under pressure, fuelling uncertainty and persistent disruptions to supply chains.
In the medium term, the air cargo sector may witness a significant reorganisation of routes and operational strategies. Analysts anticipate rising shipping rates in the coming weeks, with an initial surge in ocean freight costs likely to be followed by increases in domestic trucking prices within the US between July and August. This trend reflects the capacity challenges observed between late 2021 and early 2022, as carriers seek to maximise their pricing power during an expected wave of shipments.
The tariff truce may also accelerate existing trends such as the rerouting of Chinese trade flows towards Europe in a bid to circumvent US restrictions, with tangible effects on European logistics hubs like Milan Malpensa. In March 2025, the airport handled 70,000 tonnes of cargo — the highest monthly volume in its history.
Despite the temporary truce, air freight remains mired in uncertainty. The absence of the de minimis exemption in the agreement continues to be a significant challenge for e-commerce platforms like Temu and Shein, which heavily depend on this shipping model. According to consultancy firm Cirrus Global Advisors, which specialises in e-commerce and logistics, a 145% tariff would result in a 90% drop in parcel volume from China to the US. Even with the reduction to 30%, the impact on the sector remains substantial.
Chinese analyst Luo Chengtao of Flytech Tech has pointed out that changes to small parcel exemption policies and the transformation of the cross-border e-commerce model will have a major impact on the cargo operations of Chinese airlines, especially those with a high proportion of e-commerce shipments on US-bound routes. In the short term, this could lead to a double blow in terms of both volume and rates on these routes, directly affecting revenues and profitability levels. To adapt to this new landscape, Chinese logistics firms are exploring new markets and developing business beyond cross-border e-commerce, seeing these as crucial strategic shifts for long-term survival.
