Between 6 and 12 January 2025, air cargo rates decreased by 3%, averaging $2.76 per kilogram, according to WorldACD Market Data. While still significantly higher than in the same period of 2024, spot rates showed a sharper annual increase of 22%, compared to a 12% rise for contractual rates. The main shipping regions, including Asia-Pacific and the Middle East & South Asia (MESA), continue to play a significant role in sustaining these elevated prices.
Air cargo rates from Asia-Pacific to the US dropped by 5% week-on-week, falling to $3.81 per kilogram from their December peak of $4.75. However, these rates remain 27% higher than in the same week of 2024. Cargo volumes on this route plummeted by 24% in the first week of 2025 but rebounded by 14% in the second week. Despite this recovery in volume, spot rates continued to decline, falling from $5.39 per kilogram in December to $4.25 from China to the US.
Air freight volumes to Europe, which reached record levels in Q4 2024, dropped by 40% from mid-December onwards. Although a 26% recovery was recorded in the second week of January, volumes remain 25% below their December highs. Spot rates, which had dipped to $4.30 per kilogram at the end of 2024, rose slightly to $4.59 in the second week of 2025. Nevertheless, this figure is still 42% higher year-on-year.
Air cargo rates from MESA, which had surged due to severe disruptions in maritime supply chains during 2024, are now declining. Average market rates for this region fell by 4% in the first two weeks of 2025 compared to late 2024, though they remain 36% higher year-on-year. Spot rates from MESA to Europe are currently $2.60 per kilogram—a 20% decline from November 2024—but still 65% above last year’s levels.
Bangladesh exemplifies this trend, with rates to Europe dropping from over $5 per kilogram in September 2024 to $3.25 in the second week of 2025. Despite the sharp decline, rates remain 35% higher than a year ago. Demand and rates from MESA remain elevated, partly due to persistent geopolitical risks. The fragile truce in Gaza has yet to alter the risk assessments for maritime transport in the Red Sea. Shipping companies are reluctant to adjust routes until there is clear evidence of improved security conditions.
