Following a sharp slowdown in April, the air cargo sector recorded a clear rebound in May. Data released on 6 June 2025 by WorldACD Market Data show a 4% month-on-month increase in transported volumes, offsetting the 7% decline recorded in April. This recovery occurred within a still unstable context, shaped by geopolitical factors and international holidays that affected both demand and supply.
A key factor behind May's performance was the partial agreement reached on the 12th of the month between the United States and China, which led to the suspension or removal of certain tariffs and eased the changes introduced to the “de minimis” regime for low-value goods. This development significantly reactivated traffic between China and the US in the second half of the month, pushing volumes back towards early-April levels after a steep drop in the first half of May.
The volume increase affected all major air cargo origin regions, with the exception of Central and South America, where figures remained in decline. On a yearly basis, global traffic was driven primarily by the Asia-Pacific region (up 7%), Europe (up 4%) and Latin America (up 3%), with more moderate growth from Africa (up 2%) and North America (up 1%), while the Middle East and South Asia held steady at the elevated levels seen in 2024.
Week 22 (26 May – 1 June), although closing a positive month, marked a setback. Global volumes dropped 8% from the previous week, hit by public holidays such as Memorial Day in the United States and Ascension Day in several European countries. The weekly decline was particularly steep in North America and Europe, with drops of 13% and 11% respectively. However, compared to the same period last year, overall volumes remained broadly stable, with Asia-Pacific compensating for declines elsewhere.
From a pricing perspective, rates showed a moderate short-term recovery. In week 22, average global rates rose 3% from the previous week to reach $2.44 per kilo, a figure close to the same period in 2024. Yet when considering the entire month of May, rates remained lower than in April (down 4%) and below those of last year (down 3%), marking the first annual decline in over a year. This generalised fall affected nearly all regions except Africa, while the Middle East and South Asia saw a sharp 14% drop compared to May 2024.
Particular attention remains focused on the China–US corridor, which continues to be highly volatile. After a 15% surge in spot rates in week 21, the following week brought a further 1% rise, pushing the rate to $4.49 per kilo. This is 6% above the annual average but still 13% lower than the same period last year. Rates from Hong Kong to the United States rose 9% week-on-week, marking the second consecutive weekly increase. On the demand side, however, combined China-Hong Kong volumes to the US fell 3% from the previous week and remain 8% below 2024 levels.
Connections between China and Europe also saw a slight uptick in spot prices, up 3% and 2% respectively from China and Hong Kong, though still below this year’s average. Volumes on this lane dropped 5% in week 22 compared to the previous week, though they remain significantly higher (up 13%) than last year.
At the regional level, Africa stands out with robust demand, growing 6% year-on-year, while supply has not kept pace, resulting in rising rates. Asia-Pacific shows the opposite trend: supply is growing rapidly, while annual demand continues to decline, although rates are holding up thanks to strong intra-regional demand, especially in e-commerce and high-tech.
The Middle East and South Asia are experiencing a notable drop in volumes compared to 2024, but are supported by a more profitable cargo mix, including pharmaceuticals and express shipments. Europe remains stable, while Central and South America continue to show weakness, with widespread declines in both demand and supply and falling rates. In North America, the bellyhold overcapacity resulting from post-pandemic passenger flights continues to put downward pressure on prices.
Overall, the global market is undergoing a pricing restructuring phase: the gap between current rates and those of 2024 is closing rapidly, and if the current trend continues, parity could be reached by the end of June. Airlines appear to be relying on flexible planning, taking advantage of the rebound in passenger flights to increase cargo capacity, though this risks creating imbalances where demand fails to follow. Routes to Africa and the Middle East remain among the most profitable, thanks to a combination of stable demand and premium rates, while the American markets—especially Latin America—continue to show signs of structural fragility.
Logistics operators will need to proceed cautiously in this fluid environment. Exporting companies may choose to bring forward shipments from Asia to major Western markets to benefit from current rates before potential seasonal increases. Freight forwarders will need to secure space on high-value and critical lanes, while airlines will be called upon to optimise capacity, prioritising high-yield routes and carefully assessing the sustainability of weaker ones. In a market that is gradually emerging from the shadow of the pandemic but remains exposed to geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks, flexibility remains the most important asset for successfully navigating the months ahead.
