WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo's data for the 25th week of 2024 indicates a divergence between tonnage and rates: while the former fell by 5% - primarily due to Eid al-Adha - the latter rose modestly by 1% (to $2.54 per kilogram) compared to the previous week. However, on an annual basis, rates increased by 10% compared to the same week in 2023 and a remarkable 43% compared to June 2019 (pre-COVID period).
By combining data from the last two complete weeks (weeks 24 and 25), WorldACD observes a 3% reduction in tonnage compared to the previous two weeks, alongside a 1% increase in average rates. This decline was mainly driven by a 10% decrease in origins from the Middle East and South Asia (MESA), despite a 5% rise in average rates from these regions, partly due to continued disruptions in maritime transport caused by the Red Sea crisis. There was a significant drop in billable weight in both directions between Asia Pacific and MESA (-15% eastbound; -13% westbound) and between Europe and MESA (-12% eastbound; -7% westbound). This decline affected both inbound and outbound traffic from the MESA region.
Further analysis reveals that fourteen of the top sixty countries by air cargo volume experienced double-digit declines in outbound tonnage between weeks 24 and 25. Notably, the sharpest decreases occurred in Turkey (-69%), Saudi Arabia (-66%), Egypt (-46%), and Pakistan (-39%), with Bangladesh (-27%) and the United Arab Emirates (-24%) also seeing significant drops. Other predominantly Muslim countries such as Indonesia (-9%) and Malaysia (-11%) also recorded notable weekly decreases.
Examining traffic patterns from MESA to Europe, WorldACD analysts noted a 19% decrease in tonnage during the 25th week, with significant reductions from Dubai (-30%) and Bangladesh (-24%), while major Asian multimodal hubs like Colombo and Bangkok saw more modest declines (-4% and -5%, respectively).
On the rate front, average spot rates from MESA to Europe slightly decreased by 2% in the 25th week, primarily due to a 6% drop from Bangladesh, while rates to Europe from most other markets in the region remained stable or increased (e.g., +6% from Dubai and +4% from Colombo). However, average rates from MESA to Europe remain more than double compared to the same period in 2023, with rates from Bangladesh to Europe reaching $4.29 per kilogram (+165% year-on-year), from India to Europe $3.65 per kilogram (+159%), from Colombo to Europe $3.01 per kilogram (+125%), and from Dubai to Europe $2.36 per kilogram (+84%). Despite some rates reaching their highest levels of the year, those from Bangladesh and India to Europe have decreased from their peaks in April and May.
