Air freight from China and Hong Kong to the United States experienced another sharp drop in the first full week of June 2025, highlighting the ongoing volatility of this crucial international trade route. According to weekly data from WorldACD Market Data, week 23 (from 2 to 8 June 2025) recorded a 10% decline in volume compared to the previous week, while spot rates fell by a further 5%. This downturn is particularly significant as it follows a brief rebound in late May, suggesting that the earlier recovery may have been more temporary than structural. Volumes from China and Hong Kong to the US were 19% lower than during the same week in 2024, while spot rates dropped 17% year-on-year.
The situation reflects the intricate trade relations between the world’s two largest economies, with the market still feeling the effects of US import policies. The suspension of the latest US import tariffs on Chinese and Hong Kong products, which had supported the May recovery, failed to sustain a lasting rebound in freight traffic. The decline in China-US cargo also impacted global air freight volumes, contributing to a 3% overall drop in worldwide tonnage in week 23.
The contraction was most pronounced in southern China, where airports handle high volumes of e-commerce-related shipments. Overall, cargo from China fell by 7% compared to the previous week, pulling down volumes across the entire Asia-Pacific region, which recorded a 4% decrease. Additional factors contributed to the global decline, including the impact of Eid al-Adha holidays (5–8 June) in Southeast Asia. Malaysia and Indonesia saw drops of 14% and 10% respectively, while South Korea experienced a 6% contraction due to Memorial Day on 6 June.
European markets were not spared from the sector’s turbulence. After several weeks of growth, volumes from mainland China to Europe dropped by 5% in week 23, although Hong Kong showed slightly positive signs with a 2% increase in shipments to European destinations. A notable decline was also seen in volumes from South Korea to Europe, down 16% due to Memorial Day. Malaysia and Indonesia added to the downward trend with reductions of 26% and 24% respectively, mainly driven by Eid-related closures. Outbound traffic from Europe declined by 4%, influenced by the Pentecost holidays (8–9 June), while the Middle East and South Asia (Mesa) region saw an 8% fall, with intra-regional traffic down 26% and flows to Africa dropping 17%.
Despite significant fluctuations in volumes, the global market remained relatively stable in terms of pricing. Average global rates, including both spot and contract prices, rose by just 1% to reach 2.44 US dollars per kilogram in week 23, matching exactly the levels recorded during the same period last year. Spot rates increased by 2% week-on-week, reaching 2.63 US dollars per kilogram. Year-on-year, global spot rates are up 1% compared to 2024, with the most notable change seen in the Mesa region, where spot rates are currently 16% lower than the elevated levels of last year.
One of the most significant changes in the pricing structure was a 12% decline in spot rates from Hong Kong to the United States. This market, which has heavily relied on e-commerce traffic in recent years, continues to suffer from the new US "de minimis" rules affecting low-value shipments from China and Hong Kong. Since 2 May, these shipments have faced significantly higher import and processing costs.
