November 2025 delivers a cold shower for the Italian light commercial vehicle market. After raising operators’ hopes with four consecutive months of growth, the month just ended recorded a significant setback, with registrations down 3.3% compared with the same period in 2024. Data released by Unrae show a sector under strain: registrations stopped at 15,585 units, against more than 16,000 a year earlier. This result weighs heavily on the overall 2025 balance, which now looks set to close in negative territory. In the first eleven months of the year, volumes have fallen by 4.8%, slipping to a total of 174,542 vehicles. The association’s year-end forecast is clear and leaves little room for optimism: 2025 is expected to settle at around 190,000 units, confirming an overall contraction of 4.4% compared with 2024.
In this grey scenario, the only hint of colour comes from zero-emission powertrains, although the figures need to be read with caution. The market share of pure electric vehicles has risen to 4.3%, a clear improvement on the 2.5% recorded in November 2024. Hybrid vehicles are also gaining ground, reaching 8.8% of the total. Unrae, however, urges restraint: this “small boom” (+65.1% in volume for electric vehicles alone) has likely been fuelled by incentives from the Ministry for the Environment for vehicles available for immediate delivery. It therefore does not yet represent a structural, organic demand. Diesel, despite declining, remains the undisputed king of Italian roads, powering almost 80% of new vans sold.
Unrae’s analysis of who is registering vehicles highlights a crucial detail that explains the system’s fragile balance. The private market is struggling, losing 1.1 percentage points of share, and self-registrations have collapsed by more than a third. Holding up the figures is long-term rental, which has climbed to a 30.1% share. But there is a caveat: it is not the large independent rental companies driving growth, as the “Top” channel has lost almost 20%, but rather “captive” companies controlled directly by manufacturers, which have recorded a surge of 44.1%. This is a clear signal of how carmakers are pushing registrations through their own channels to support volumes at a time of weak real demand.
Looking at individual brands, the hierarchy appears solid. Fiat dominates unchallenged, placing its two flagships, Doblò and Ducato, first and second respectively in the sales rankings. Iveco Daily confirms its position on the third step of the podium, a pillar of heavy logistics. Behind them, however, Ford is moving with an aggressive strategy, placing four models in the top ten, the entire Transit range plus the Ranger pick-up, confirming itself as the leading foreign competitor on Italian soil.
Unrae president Roberto Pietrantonio does not mince his words when outlining the sector’s priorities. There is keen anticipation for decisions coming, or expected, from Brussels and Rome. At European level, attention is focused on the European Commission’s regulatory package due on 16 December, which will be crucial in defining new CO2 emission standards and rules for corporate fleets. On the domestic front, the association is calling on the Italian government for an immediate change of pace. Its demands include unlocking reimbursements to dealers for incentives already paid out and using the remaining ecobonus funds. In addition, Unrae is asking for a 50% tax credit for the 2026–2028 period for private investment in fast charging infrastructure above 70 kW, seen as indispensable for freight transport operations.
Antonio Illariuzzi
