Worldwide air freight transport lost momentum in June 2025, according to Iata’s monthly figures released on 31 July. Demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, grew by 0.8% year on year, with international operations performing slightly better at 1.6%. Available capacity increased by 1.7%, while the load factor slipped to 45.5%, a drop of 0.4 percentage points compared to 2024.
This snapshot reflects a market adjusting to the effects of recent front-loading, new trade barriers and rerouted services in the Middle East. On a seasonally adjusted basis, traffic rose by 1.6% compared to May 2025. The make-up of capacity is shifting increasingly toward the bellyhold of passenger flights, which now accounts for around 56% of international capacity, its highest level since 2019. In contrast, freighter operations remain almost flat at 0.4%, hindered by tensions along key routes.
Regional analysis reveals a fragmented global picture. Asia-Pacific saw a 9% rise in traffic and a load factor of 50.3%, both up on the year and the month, driven by e-commerce and intra-regional flows. Europe barely edged into positive territory with a 0.8% increase, maintaining a high load factor at 49.6% despite a monthly dip. Africa rebounded by 3.9% but recorded a modest load factor of 42.1%, while Latin America grew by 3.5%, with saturation improving to 36.6% thanks to perishable goods and capacity constraints in key markets. The Middle East contracted by 3.2% with a load factor of 45.2%, weighed down by restrictions and route diversions. North America lagged behind, with traffic down 8.3% and the lowest regional load factor at 38.5%, despite a slight month-on-month recovery. Within the international segment, which accounts for over 87% of the total, demand rose by 1.6% year on year, with a load factor at 50.3%. Asia-Pacific surged by 8.3%, followed by Europe at 1.0% and Latin America at 4.1%, while the Middle East and North America fell by 3.1% and 6.1% respectively.
Major trade corridors also moved at different speeds. The Asia–Europe lane was the most dynamic, posting a 10.5% annual increase, fuelled by demand for technology, pharmaceuticals and luxury goods. The North America–Europe transatlantic route grew by 4.8% but decelerated from May. Intra-European traffic declined by 1.7% year on year, though it showed a slight monthly improvement. The Asia–North America axis contracted by 4.7% for the second consecutive month, reflecting the impact of new US trade measures. Middle East-based flows remained under pressure: following Easa’s Czib 2025-02 advisory recommending avoidance of specific regional airspace, Middle East–Europe connections deteriorated further and Middle East–Asia volumes dropped significantly.
In the first half of 2025, the total market registered a 2.8% increase in cargo tonne-kilometres and a 3% rise in available capacity, with a load factor steady at 45.2%. Asia-Pacific stood out with 8.4% growth, followed by Latin America at 6.5%, while the Middle East fell by 3.5%, Africa by 1.6%, and North America declined by 0.8%. Focusing solely on international operations, the half-year result shows a 3.5% increase in traffic and 4.3% growth in capacity, with a load factor at 50.7%.
This creates a patchwork of winners and losers. Asia–Europe hubs are gaining ground, supported by premium demand and networks less affected by Middle Eastern constraints, while Latin America benefits from countercyclical goods and tighter capacity. North America remains under strain as tariffs reshape flows with Asia, and the Middle East continues to suffer from longer routes and rising costs. While the recent uptick in fuel prices and slight yield recovery call for caution in pricing and hedging strategies, the most influential variable for the peak season will be the review of US tariffs expected by early August, which could redirect both capacity and routing in the second half of the year.
