Despite positive figures for the year in terms of volumes and rates, December saw a noticeable slowdown in the global air freight sector. Weekly data from WorldACD Market Data revealed a 6% rise in volumes and a 7% increase in rates compared to December 2023. This trend became more pronounced in the final two months of the year, with growth slowing to single digits: +8% in November and +6% in December. However, this decline is not surprising, given the strong growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023, which set a higher benchmark for comparison.
Preliminary figures for early 2025 confirm this dynamic. During the first week of January (30 December 2024–5 January 2025), global tonnage posted a modest 2% growth year-on-year. This was influenced by both the typical seasonal dip during this period and adverse weather conditions in the United States. Meanwhile, global spot rates began 2025 with a robust 22% increase compared to the start of 2024, driven by a 23% surge in rates from the Asia-Pacific region and an impressive 59% increase from the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) markets. In contrast, contract rates showed a more subdued 6% growth.
Despite the overall slowdown, December data showed strong performance for tonnage originating from the Asia-Pacific region. Volumes remained significantly above the 2024 average, except for November’s peak. On a quarterly basis, cargo volumes from this region grew by 6% in the fourth quarter compared to the third and by 11% year-on-year. However, annual growth rates steadily declined, falling from +20% in the first quarter to +11% in the fourth.
MESA markets exhibited a similar trajectory. Annual growth, which stood at 27% in the first quarter of 2024, slowed to 7% by the year’s end. This deceleration can partly be attributed to a challenging comparison with the fourth quarter of 2023, during which disruptions in maritime shipping via the Red Sea shifted some traffic to air freight.
The transatlantic market presented a noteworthy exception to global trends. In the latter part of 2024, spot rates for shipments from Europe to North America experienced a significant surge, peaking at $3.88 per kilogram in the 50th week of the year (+50% year-on-year). Although rates subsequently declined to $2.95 per kilogram in the final week of December, they remained 44% higher than the previous year. This development was driven by seasonal reductions in passenger flight belly capacity from late October onwards and the reallocation of cargo capacity to Asian markets, which increased load factors on transatlantic routes.
Despite the slowdown in the fourth quarter, 2024 ended with a global tonnage increase of nearly 11% (+10.8% year-on-year), fuelled by growth in the primary regions for air cargo. However, the challenges of a higher comparative base and regional fluctuations suggest that 2025 could mark the beginning of a more moderate growth phase for the sector.
