Average spot rates for air cargo rose by 5% globally during the final full week of October, driven by weekly price increases from Asia Pacific (+3%), Europe (+7%), and Central and South America (+8%). However, the overall volume of cargo transported remained relatively stable compared to the previous week, standing around 4% below last year's levels. These insights were released by WorldACD Market Data on November 1, 2024.
The data indicate that, following a period of relative stability over the previous three weeks—coinciding with China's Golden Week holiday and the subsequent recovery period—global average spot rates increased to $2.93 per kilogram in week 43 (October 21-27), with the full market average (which includes both spot and contractual rates) rising by 2% to $2.67 per kilogram. These increases bring spot rates to levels 22% higher than the same period last year, with rates from Asia Pacific up by 27% and those from the Middle East and South Asia (Mesa) rising by 78% year-on-year.
Preliminary data for the entire month of October show a 7% increase in cargo volume compared to October last year, based on more than 450,000 weekly transactions analyzed by WorldACD. While this is a significant increase, it is lower than the double-digit percentage growth that characterized much of the year, partly due to the comparison with October 2023, which saw a sharp rise in e-commerce volumes.
Looking at specific routes and markets in recent weeks, particularly from Asia Pacific and Mesa origins, cargo volumes from Asia Pacific to Europe increased slightly (+1% from the previous week) in week 43. However, the weight of cargo transported from China to Europe fell by 4%, returning to the levels recorded in the same week last year, in sharp contrast to the double-digit growth seen for much of this year.
Meanwhile, volumes from the Hong Kong region to Europe increased by about 30% from early August levels and by 29% year-on-year, despite a slight dip of 1% in week 43. Other significant Asia Pacific markets also showed strong weekly growth in volumes to Europe over the past two weeks, particularly Taiwan (+32%) and Thailand (+30%). Spot rates from Hong Kong to Europe rose by an additional 3% in week 43, reaching $5.33 per kilogram, the highest level of the year, representing an 18% increase compared to last year.
On the transpacific market, total volumes from Asia Pacific to the United States returned to pre-Golden Week levels (week 40), although volumes from China to the U.S. have not yet fully recovered, remaining around 20% below average September levels and down 19% compared to the same week last year. Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the U.S., averaging $6.14 per kilogram in week 43, increased by 39% year-on-year, while rates from China to the U.S. were 14% higher, at $5.13 per kilogram.
Extending the analysis period to two weeks, average global rates (for the full market) rose by 3% in weeks 42 and 43 compared to the previous two weeks, showing an 11% increase compared to the same period last year. Notable increases include a 6% rise in rates from Europe to North America and from Central and South America to Europe, while volumes from Europe to Central and South America grew by 7%. Rates from Asia Pacific to Europe and North America rose by 3% and 2%, respectively.
Meanwhile, overall volumes for weeks 42 and 43 increased by 2% compared to weeks 40 and 41 and by 5% year-on-year. Among routes showing significant changes on a biennial basis, there was a 9% decrease in volumes from Mesa to Europe, a 9% increase in weight transported from Asia Pacific to North America, and an 11% rise in traffic originating in North America to Central and South America. Volumes from Mesa origins, which were inflated for much of the year due to disruptions in container shipping services in the Red Sea, recorded the largest decline (-4%) among regions, while Asia Pacific saw the biggest increases (+4%), with the market recovering from China's Golden Week.
